@sqrl 

The Shipped and sold numbers in regards to the Wii are pretty much Parallel as the Sellout once they are on sale especially during Christmas season. 

 @TheSource

that still means they need to produce 10 million Wii's by end of 07. in your other prediction you have 4.2 million Wii sold in the US alone for the rest of the year where you assume production will have to double and even Quadroup for November (Appx 1mill) and December (2mill) estimates for the US alone. How does the Wii sell what it would worldwide in the US Without a Major Production Jump. they have to make 10million Wii's to even have that as a Shipped number this year. And Baring information of more factories/manufacturers making consoles for nintendo I cant belive 10 million more by end of 07.

6 million maybe even 7.5 million is possible.

If im wrong so be it but the numbers don't add up. 

presumably Nintendo has already been stockpiling, they would never set a goal like 23.3 million units shipped by the end of march 2008 if they didn't intend on being close to it. To say that they would ship 20 million by the end of 2007 is not far fetched at all, in fact that would be right in line with Nintendo's expectations.

Responding to the part @ me

Yes, I am familiar with the concept, I was just saying that you can end up with some really wierd numbers when mixing the two data sets if you are not careful.

Responding to the part @TheSource

The Q1 financial report recently said 16.5m shipped was their target for the fiscal year.

Now once you take out the 3.43m shipped in Q1 we are left with 13.07. Now it is very likely that we will see around 3.5m shipped during Q2 and Q4, with the rest being shipped during the holidays (aka Q3). So in essence....

• Q1: 3.43m
• Q2: 3.5m
• Q3: 6.07m
  
• Q4: 3.5m

Something a lot of people might miss is that it is very possible for retail chains to be stockpiling even if Nintendo is not. Their incentive is HUGE, they want to draw in customers to shop for X-mas gifts at their stores.

Edit: PS - Nintendo's projections for the fiscal year are probably the biggest proof of holiday stockpiling out there. They need big X-mas numbers to meet their goal.

 But When do you think Retailers have started or are going to start stockpiling. 

The only Reason I can belive that they are stock piling is if they are doing it to have alot more bundles in november and they can say that they are sold out of unbundled Wii's forcing people to buy the 450 dollar Wii bundles that gives consumers like 3 games they don't even want and like $10 savings total.

Either way i gotta get a Wii before metriod comes out and these things get even harder to find. 

Honestly, I have no proof the retailers are stockpiling.  Just a bit of logic that says having Wii's over the holidays is good for getting people into your store to buy gifts.  They may have started a while ago, or they may not even be aware of the Wii craze, I simply don't know.

But when it comes to bundles, I have to agree.  I hate them, but some people love them.  I think stores if they are stockpiling will try to bundle and move more software.  it just makes sense from their perspective.  And honestly their isn't much Nintendo can do to stop them.

As for your Wii search, I have one word for you: Sunday

Sunday is the best day to shop for Wii's. And Toys'R'Us is usually the best store to check. 

 I am also thinking of the nintendo world Store In manhatten.  I'll check a few places tomarrow morning b4 work like Toy's R Us, Bestbuy, Walmart,  Target and Circuitcity. if no luck  then ill goto the nintendo world store after work  to get some info on when they get thier shipments and if it alot.

I honestly just want to find someone who will trade me for the crappy 360 i have collecting dust due to it coming with a broken HDD 3 months ago and M$ is still on their ass not sending a new one all this time. My PS3 gets all the play right now and its great.

Will Wii hit 22 million sold to consumers before the PS3 hits 8 million?

No way.

BTW... did you spot PS3's sale boost in Others? It looks like bundle works pretty well. More than 35k this week.

 Not sure who that first part is aimed at but I did notice the sales boost. I am actually more interested in seeing the Japan numbers to see how much change there is/isn't from last week.  

Looking back through the historical numbers for the Americas/Others/Japan it strikes me that in a peak December sales of 5 million (hardware) is possible if a console is selling strongly everywhere, and available in all three regions.

PS2 had a 5 million+ (sell through to gamers) December (worldwide) in 2002. I don't expect Wii's December to be that strong in 2007 - but I'd watch for it next year. PS2 did nearly 3 million in the USA that year in December over 2 million in Europe, and over 400k in Japan. The main reasons?

- Compelling content
- First holiday of $199 PS2.

My comparisons for Wii in 2007 assume Wii is cheaper than PS2 in holiday 2001, but more expensive than PS2 in holiday 2002. PS2 did 2 million in the Americas in 2001 in December, over a million in Others in 2001, and 800k in Japan.

It is pretty reasonable to expect Wii to do at least 3.75 million in December.
I'd put at it ~ 2 million USA/2.3 million Americas, 800k Japan, 1.2 million Others
Roughly 4.3 million Wiis sold in December 2007.

Edit - see below on how this works out for Wii worldwide in 2007 (assuming Nintendo beats their forecast again)

Basically, 11.1 million end of Aug, 12.3 million end of Sept, 13.5 end of Oct, 15.5 end of Nov, ~20 million end of December.  That is the ramp up I expect.