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Sqrl on 07 August 2007
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grimygunz said:
Sqrl said:
@grimygunz,

You have to really read carefully because of the differences in shipped/sold to retail/sold to consumer. It is very easy to get confused, although I will admit that post was hard to follow. Normally TheSource is better about keeping the different data sets separated but I think he was trying to make a point involving both sets of data.

@sqrl

The Shipped and sold numbers in regards to the Wii are pretty much Parallel as the Sellout once they are on sale especially during Christmas season.

@TheSource

that still means they need to produce 10 million Wii's by end of 07. in your other prediction you have 4.2 million Wii sold in the US alone for the rest of the year where you assume production will have to double and even Quadroup for November (Appx 1mill) and December (2mill) estimates for the US alone. How does the Wii sell what it would worldwide in the US Without a Major Production Jump. they have to make 10million Wii's to even have that as a Shipped number this year. And Baring information of more factories/manufacturers making consoles for nintendo I cant belive 10 million more by end of 07.

6 million maybe even 7.5 million is possible.

If im wrong so be it but the numbers don't add up.

 

Responding to the part @ me

Yes, I am familiar with the concept, I was just saying that you can end up with some really wierd numbers when mixing the two data sets if you are not careful.

Responding to the part @TheSource

The Q1 financial report recently said 16.5m shipped was their target for the fiscal year.

Now once you take out the 3.43m shipped in Q1 we are left with 13.07. Now it is very likely that we will see around 3.5m shipped during Q2 and Q4, with the rest being shipped during the holidays (aka Q3). So in essence....

  • Q1: 3.43m
  • Q2: 3.5m
  • Q3: 6.07m
  • Q4: 3.5m

Something a lot of people might miss is that it is very possible for retail chains to be stockpiling even if Nintendo is not. Their incentive is HUGE, they want to draw in customers to shop for X-mas gifts at their stores.

Edit: PS - Nintendo's projections for the fiscal year are probably the biggest proof of holiday stockpiling out there. They need big X-mas numbers to meet their goal.



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