Looking back through the historical numbers for the Americas/Others/Japan it strikes me that in a peak December sales of 5 million (hardware) is possible if a console is selling strongly everywhere, and available in all three regions.
PS2 had a 5 million+ (sell through to gamers) December (worldwide) in 2002. I don't expect Wii's December to be that strong in 2007 - but I'd watch for it next year. PS2 did nearly 3 million in the USA that year in December over 2 million in Europe, and over 400k in Japan. The main reasons?
- Compelling content
- First holiday of $199 PS2.
My comparisons for Wii in 2007 assume Wii is cheaper than PS2 in holiday 2001, but more expensive than PS2 in holiday 2002. PS2 did 2 million in the Americas in 2001 in December, over a million in Others in 2001, and 800k in Japan.
It is pretty reasonable to expect Wii to do at least 3.75 million in December.
I'd put at it ~ 2 million USA/2.3 million Americas, 800k Japan, 1.2 million Others
Roughly 4.3 million Wiis sold in December 2007.
Edit - see below on how this works out for Wii worldwide in 2007 (assuming Nintendo beats their forecast again)
Basically, 11.1 million end of Aug, 12.3 million end of Sept, 13.5 end of Oct, 15.5 end of Nov, ~20 million end of December. That is the ramp up I expect.
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