Are you describing Soul Calibur 4 and Devil May Cry 4 as a good game? MGS4 OK, GTA4 is contestable but SC4 and DMC4 LOL we're not talking about AAA games here.

@abroz... Firstly, I haven't checked it, but Oyv said GTA:SA sold 12.15 million in 12 months, not 12.5

Despite that, MKWii has been over your weekly calculation the past 9 weeks (soon to be 10) it appearsbto have plateau-ed between 160k and 170k per week.

True it's post Christmas sales will probably flat-line lower (if they are still the same I will be astonished) but the Christmas boost can make up for quite a lot.

e.g if the sales stayed at 160k for all but 1 week left of 2008 and sales in 2009 dropped to 150k per week.... then that 1 week in 2008 would only need to be double normal sales to nagate the 10k/wk loss and still manage the target.

Then think that there won't just be 1 week of increased sales, but many (likely 3 or 4 will have double or more current sales, 1 of them might even triple it, then add together the weeks as it increased up from 160 - double.

I don't just think it will make it, I think it will blue-shell it right on the finish line.

-- My guess is Mario Kart Wii will be a full million at least ahead of GTA:SAs record (assuming it is 12.15, I'd best check that first)

You do know that MK Wii has ben selling on average about 160k a week right.  And that's been in the dead of summer for the areas.  Meaning outside of that it's probably more around 190k and I don't even want to mention what it'll do in the holiday weeks.  So I'm wondering where your point in all this is going to arise as really that data is actually proving it'll happen haha.

Also MKWii seems to have been undertracked alot in the Americas,around 150-200k so that means it does around 30k more,so that put's it near the 200k a week,then plus the holidays will make it sell double of that,so I think it will do it.

absiolutely c0rd. however, i think maybe i phrased my post incorrectly so i'll reiterate.

the max on the gamecube was 7 million copies.

That means that there are maybe 6-8 million fans depending on how many rebuys and used game purchases there were.
There are only 20 million fans of nintendo from last gen.

This means that, at most, the loyalty factor is only going to affect 20 million, of which maybe only 10 million have bought a wii, it's quite hard to say. i had a cube and i sold my wii so... there ya go, it's really hard to say. To be on the safe side of the argument, we'll say that all 20 million cube owners have a wii. that means that 7 million mario kart games should be sold of which 8 million already are.

out of those gamecube owners 10 million had played mk64, and lost 3 million at the next iteration.

So as far as the overextended demographic, coupled with the lack of fanbase (comparitively), and the sales per week dropping by a good 8-10 percent week over week, the relatively expensive cost of the wheels and remotes, and several other great games on the market for the wii,  I hereby bet that mkwii will not reach the record.

although you make a point saying that the wheel sells to other people than fans, i agree, however your point says, "on top of the fans there is this group", when in reality it is "this group needs to make up for the lack of fans in the first place"

your assertion that mkwii is the perfect choice is just an opinion. IMO more people are looking at wiiFit, mario galaxy, things that make news, or are archetypal, mkwii just isn't archetypal, sure its a racing game and it's a mario game, but new gamers will be playing mario galaxy than a sidegame starring mario.

Already done :)

http://www.vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=13548&region=All

I don't know what Mario Kart you're looking at, but it's not dropping 8-10% a week. As far as legs go, it's about as good as any game is going to get.

As much as I like SMG, it's simply something that most casuals aren't as interested in. The controls aren't anywhere near as intuitive as MK. You're flat out wrong if you think SMG will outlast MK.

If all you are trying to demonstrate is the fan base of the series, why not go with the most recent game - the 12 million who bought MKDS?

The almost 12 million AND the people who are STILL buying the game regularly putting the game in the top 10 charts years three years after release.

Not to mention that MK Wii is even more attractive to the non-video gaming crowd, since it virally spreads itself through multi-player play.

Sure, it's just an opinion, but it isn't based on how much I like the game. This isn't merely a Mario side-show game. The game just reaches out to more people - think of it as "Wii Racing." Racing has huge potential to be popular amongst the expanded audience, because people can relate with it to real life. This is why it is consistently selling at a massive rate (over 160k), and why it has completely blown past Mario Galaxy. Anybody that knows about cars can understand the concept of racing (Mario Kart Wii). That definitely cannot be said about all games, and that includes Super Mario Galaxy. 3D Mario has never hit mainstream like he did in 2D.

edit: Forgot to mention how important the social aspect of the game is. Mario Kart offers this, and like FishyJoe said, it allows itself to spread virally.