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Forums - Sales Discussion - Can Mario Kart Wii become the nr 1 selling game in its first 12 months?

Jo21 on 19 September 2008

GTA4 got a 3 million lead.


not sure if mk legs are big enough to over come that.



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Commando on 19 September 2008

It looks like it has that potential. At least when it comes to games that we can actually track. Super Mario World may have been bigger it's first year. I dunno.



"Let justice be done though the heavens fall." - Jim Garrison

"Ask not your horse, if ye should ride into battle" - myself

tabsina on 19 September 2008
Mario Kart should be able to get in there, which would be amazing since it is competing on a console with roughly 1/3 the ps2s life when SA was released.. that said, as several people have said: the more interesting race would be between GTA4 (ps3/360) and mario kart wii...
as of the last week of complete data, mk wii sold 110k more than the combined sales of both versions of GTA4, if a similar ratio can hold up through the holiday season and into next year, it could quite possibly outpace even that by the end of their 12 month lifetimes

theprof00 on 19 September 2008

here's what we can do, we can either make a bet, or we don't.



disolitude on 19 September 2008
izaaz101 said:
disolitude said:

 

 

Actually you may be right here. those games probably would not slow down the sales of mario kart. I do think that lack of games (May 2008 - present) is helping mario Kart however but it would sell very high reguardless. Only a game like Sonic racing or Kirby flying adventure could slow down the sales of Mario Kart.

Already done :)

http://www.vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=13548®ion=All

LOL. there is a sonic racing game? Is this any good? Or is Sonic R still the king of sonic racers...while being one of the worst sonic games ever made.

 



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woopah on 19 September 2008

then lets bet



 nintendo fanboy, but the good kind

proud soldier of nintopia

 

Oyvoyvoyv on 19 September 2008
abroZ said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:

Okay, this is a very short post, so that people are actually going to read it (unlike my normal threads, this is a bit of a test).

I think it has a shot (bundled game excluded of course).

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Grand+Theft+Auto%3A+San+Andreas+-+PS2®2=All&game2=Mario+Kart+Wii+-+Wii®3=All&game3=Pokemon+Gold+%2F+Silver+-+GB&weeks=52

 

GTA:SA sold 12.15M in its first 12 months. It holds the record as of now.

Mario Kart Wii should be able to have sold 10M by the start of 09 (probably more).

That means that it is going to need ~ 2M sales over 4 months (15 weeks). Then it would need 133K/week sales to make it. A lot, but as it would probably have sold more than 10M by the end of the year.

 

So, what do you think?

Oh, and Wii Fit has no change. It has 10 weeks to sell 5M (due to the early Japan launch)

hey oyvo I think you miscounted a bit.

MKWii is out for 22 weeks
one year has 52 weeks (52-22=30)
so that means that mkwii has still 30 weeks to sell

Now 12.5 million - 7 662 017 ( week ending September 5th) = 4 837 983

That means mkwii would have to sell 4 837 983 copies in 30 weeks
4 837 983/30 = 161 266

MKwii has to sell an avarage of 161 266 copies a week to reach 12.5 million.

Even with a holiday boost it is very unlikely this will happen.

 

I think you misunderstood me.

MKWii will have sold 10M by christmas (or so almost all of VGChartz predicts). Then it needs 133K/week to manage 12.15M

 

 



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

TWRoO on 19 September 2008
Jo21 said:
GTA4 got a 3 million lead.


not sure if mk legs are big enough to over come that.

I can't stress how much I hate this phrase and how dim-witted it sounds when spoken aloud, but my answer to that is:

Lol, Wut?

http://www.vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Mario+Kart+Wii+-+Wii&reg2=All&game2=Grand+Theft+Auto+IV+-+PS3&reg3=All&game3=grand+theft+auto+iv+-+x360&weeks=52

The current weekly sales would put Mario Kart Wii above 10 million by the end of the year even without a Christmas boost.

(I used 165k X 16 weeks left [didn't include the current week as Americas sales are not added yet])

The current week sales for GTAIV combined would put it almost exactly 1 million above MKWii by the end of the year (no Christmas boost)

Now Christmas boosts generally don't keep the gap between 2 selling items the same, in fact the gap widens, which means MKWii will be less than 1 million behind GTAIV by the years end, personally I think it's going to be very close on which sells the most for 2008.

So a 3 million gap (actually it's 2.65 million as of the last completed week) is not much of a hill for Mario Kart (only 10 weeks ago that gap was 3.5 million btw)

Also bare in mind this analysis favoured GTAIV because I took out the holiday sales for both games and assumed they would both sell the same each wee for the next 16 weeks.... and while Mario Kart has shown the last 7 weeks it can consistantly sell between 160 and 170k without any obvious downward trend, GTAIV is shoing a downward trend... 7 weeks ago it was selling 85k, and it has slowly come down to 65k.

 



izaaz101 on 19 September 2008
disolitude said:
izaaz101 said:
disolitude said:

 

 

Actually you may be right here. those games probably would not slow down the sales of mario kart. I do think that lack of games (May 2008 - present) is helping mario Kart however but it would sell very high reguardless. Only a game like Sonic racing or Kirby flying adventure could slow down the sales of Mario Kart.

Already done :)

http://www.vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=13548®ion=All

LOL. there is a sonic racing game? Is this any good? Or is Sonic R still the king of sonic racers...while being one of the worst sonic games ever made.

 

I can stomache most Sonic games...........I played this no more than an hour.



PredictSales1337 on 20 September 2008

Mario Kart Wii has been out for around six months and has sold about 7 million copies, which is very good. But;

Grand Theft Auto IV sold 10 million copies in less than four months.

Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas, the King, sold more than 12 million copies in five months.

So, Mario Kart Wii doesn't hold a candle to Grand Theft Auto.