X360 will finish a distant third in all regions including NA. PS3 will finish 2nd in NA.

Still to early to call... but 360 is looking solid in the region at the moment.

Is this really still considered "early" in the cycle? Closing in 3 years after the 360 launch and 2 years after the PS3/Wii launch? I'd say we're getting to the halfway point, and not at all early.

I think you might need to redefine your theory that the PS3 is just waiting to pull a PS2 breakout. I think it's a good chance the Playstation 3 could lose some ground this generation. You, obviously, don't.

I would give the PS3 about a 30% chance in NA for second place. (Compared to the 360, with a 5% chance in Japan for 2nd place).

and would likely need at least 3.5 years for one of those to take effect.


You know Japan market is way lost to first place, when PS3 fanboys are happy when the wii drops to only outsell it by double for a given week.

The only reason the 360 has a chance (5%) in Japan for second place, is mainly because the PS3 is doing so poorly. If things turn around for the 360, it might not take long for the 360 to catch up with the PS3. Given the ease of programming of the 360 compared to PS3, and with PS3 looking like possibly 3rd place WW, there might be an increase in 360 development. Not that likely, but enough to say that in 3 years, the 360 has at least a 5% chance in Japan for second place.

360's only chance for 2nd place in others, is if it takes Japan, it which case others could follow in a couple of more years.

@jlauro
i don't agree your point
i think 360 have high chance to turn the tide in Japan
Price cut and 360 exclusive JRPG is the key factors.

@ahcheng
I thought I was being generous for the 360, and most people wouldn't even give it a 1% chance for Japan. The PS3 has almost 3.5X the total sales of the 360 in Japan, and the 360 has been out longer. Last week, the PS3 outsold the 360 by 8X. (Granted, that is just prior to the price cut, so sales are down in anticipation.)

It is, but then it is reasonably safe to assume it may come in 3rd.

the factors you have to look at are as follows:

1) what will happen when ps3 cut their prices?
2) how will the line up of games affect 360 sales (both consoles, and currently, ps3 has a better line up for the future).
3) How will HOME influence gamers?
4) how will the new ps eye products effect casual games and hardcore games?
5) when will 360 release their new console and when will they stop supporting the 360?
6) how long will the price cut effect last?
7) what will EPIC do after their 2 year exclusive deal runs out? they may release Gears of War 1+2 and future Gear of Wars games multiplat.
8) What will Bungie do now that they are independent? They may not have halo, but Bungie Is Halo, and Halo without Bungie is not the same. Just as Rare has never been the same since MS took over. A new Bungie game will be welcome regardless of what name it is under.
9) How Dev's and Ip's will take advantage of the PS3 and what more the console can do over the years. As time passes, we see the PS3 pushed further and further in terms of capabilities whilst the Xbox is stuck more or less where it is.
10) If the 360 will release a BR drive or not.

As a N4g article once said, around 50% of PS2 owners have still not made the next gen leap. That's an estimate of 50-60million users. The number of people buying the PS3 is increasing steadily as new games and new content is introduced. All it takes is a PS3 price drop to increase sales dramatically. i wouldn't be surprised if Sony do drop the price by $50 just a month or so before xmas. if they do, the 360 price cut may not be as effective as planned by MS.

The gap is only 5.5million and IMO it will be 4million if PS3 does well with the launch of LPB, R2 and a price drop after xmas holidays. meaning, PS3 will have about 2/3 years to shift another 4million consoles to catch up to the 360. It is very much possible.

On the other hand, PS3 may not drop their price, Xmas may heavily swing in favor of the 360, tekken may go towards a multi-platform release, and Ms may release a 360 with built in WIFI and HDD for $199. IMo, if this was to happen, PS3 would find it very difficult to catch up to 360 in NA as well as the rest of the world.

odds makes would give the edge to the 360 in NA 3:2 shot it wins. Blue ray is Sony's ace in the hole.