I would give the PS3 about a 30% chance in NA for second place. (Compared to the 360, with a 5% chance in Japan for 2nd place).
and would likely need at least 3.5 years for one of those to take effect.
You know Japan market is way lost to first place, when PS3 fanboys are happy when the wii drops to only outsell it by double for a given week.
The only reason the 360 has a chance (5%) in Japan for second place, is mainly because the PS3 is doing so poorly. If things turn around for the 360, it might not take long for the 360 to catch up with the PS3. Given the ease of programming of the 360 compared to PS3, and with PS3 looking like possibly 3rd place WW, there might be an increase in 360 development. Not that likely, but enough to say that in 3 years, the 360 has at least a 5% chance in Japan for second place.
360's only chance for 2nd place in others, is if it takes Japan, it which case others could follow in a couple of more years.
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