Congratulations to the topic poster on his incredible luck. See you in two weeks after the sales crash and burn.

Calling heads or tails when flipping a coin and getting right is luck. Analyzing and predicting when for the first time this generation the 360 will beat out the Wii is skill.

Ha ha. I earned back some credibility today :)

Overall, I feel my 3 major points for the X360 were as close as I could of got them. Microsoft indeed made the 'perfect storm' by having a significant price drop and new game end the shortage of consoles.

On the other end, the Wii did FAR better than I had trended the console to - Both Famitsu and MC had been tracking the Wii similarly to last year, which put my prediction in doubt. Overall, the X360 exceeded what I thought it could of done, to somehow beat the Wii.

In Summary:

Things we know:

• The X360 was supply constrained. You don't go from 840 units to 28,681 and argue the system wasn't supply constrained.
  
• Given the right conditions, Japan can care about the Xbox 360 - at least for a little bit of time.
  

Things we don't know:

• If this is a trend or a spike. After TOV, we could easily tell it was a spike - but now we have to question how much the supply issues played into the X360 dropping from 24k to 840 in a month. Where will the X360 stand at next week?
• Will the X360 challenge the Playstation 3 in the future? Could the DS-PSP wars of late 07 into fall 08 be a similar scenario for the X360/PS3?

Overall, this is just one random prediction that happened to be right, and was a fun thread to be in, even with those that argued against it. Many provided valid points, and we could of easily seen me on the other end, eating major crow with the X360 selling 1/2 that of the Wii this week.

The next challenge for the X360 is to stay above 10,000 units next week. It has no games debuting (to my knowledge), and has had a historically bad record of dropping, even after big milestones. The only time it didn't happen was when Blue Dragon launched, and there was a 4 week span that the X360 moved a boatload of consoles.

Mrstickball, you never lost any credibility in the first place! :)

I think we need a 360 > PS3 on 9/18 thread next.

Good job Mrstickball!

However, I must say that its actually a statistical tie considering the margin of error but I must give you credit because I could never have predicted something like this.

X360>Wii in JP. Shocker of the year after FFXIII lol.

mr stickball, you are my hero and a big hahahaha for all the people than were laughing of him. I really still impresive for that great prediction, maybe the most acurate of all.

Hey, namechecked...

http://www.edge-online.com/news/japan-360-topples-wii

Check first comment (I hope that wasn't you using a different ID Mr Stick!)

I do find it funny the need in todays' 24 hour news society to go for maximum impact with titles - 360 Topples Wii! Very funny.

Still, I guess "360 sells slightly more due to pent up demand coupled with price drop coupled with new game coupled with slow week for Wii" is a bit of a mouthful even if it is a more accurate summation... not wanting to bash 360 because even one week is amazing but this is already being spun way out of proportion...

Yeah. I agree that it's near, if not a, statistical tie...Although Famtisu (it seems) re-calculated the numbers to ensure that at least their numbers showed the X360 won.

However, I have this wierd feeling that MC is going to show the Wii well above Famitsu's 27k - Media Create has had MAJOR discrepancies with Famitsu in terms of Wii sales (sometimes larger than 20% - in favor of the Wii for Media Create). That is, unless Famitsu is finally making up for their discrepancies, but that's iffy.

Even if you don't like Microsoft, you have to hand it to MS that they are at least making such a hopelessly lost region somewhat exciting once in awhile. Heck, year vs. year, the X360 just sold almost as many X360's this week than the Xbox did during the rest of it's lifespan from Sept. 2004 onward (which is the comparable timeframe the X360 is in vs. the Xbox). Not even the Wii has pulled those kinds of numbers against their successor.

Ha ha. No, it's not me.

http://www.vgchartz.com/profiles/profile.php?id=9322

He's a VGC user.