Ha ha. I earned back some credibility today :)
Overall, I feel my 3 major points for the X360 were as close as I could of got them. Microsoft indeed made the 'perfect storm' by having a significant price drop and new game end the shortage of consoles.
On the other end, the Wii did FAR better than I had trended the console to - Both Famitsu and MC had been tracking the Wii similarly to last year, which put my prediction in doubt. Overall, the X360 exceeded what I thought it could of done, to somehow beat the Wii.
In Summary:
Things we know:
- The X360 was supply constrained. You don't go from 840 units to 28,681 and argue the system wasn't supply constrained.
- Given the right conditions, Japan can care about the Xbox 360 - at least for a little bit of time.
Things we don't know:
- If this is a trend or a spike. After TOV, we could easily tell it was a spike - but now we have to question how much the supply issues played into the X360 dropping from 24k to 840 in a month. Where will the X360 stand at next week?
- Will the X360 challenge the Playstation 3 in the future? Could the DS-PSP wars of late 07 into fall 08 be a similar scenario for the X360/PS3?
Overall, this is just one random prediction that happened to be right, and was a fun thread to be in, even with those that argued against it. Many provided valid points, and we could of easily seen me on the other end, eating major crow with the X360 selling 1/2 that of the Wii this week.
The next challenge for the X360 is to stay above 10,000 units next week. It has no games debuting (to my knowledge), and has had a historically bad record of dropping, even after big milestones. The only time it didn't happen was when Blue Dragon launched, and there was a 4 week span that the X360 moved a boatload of consoles.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
