libellule

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libellule on 11 August 2008

Not me that said this :

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/sony-and-nintendo-will-tie-in-hardware-race-says-former-scee-boss

Sony and Nintendo will tie in hardware race, says former SCEE boss

Speaking at the Edinburgh Interactive Festival this morning, former SCEE president Chris Deering predicted Sony and Nintendo will tie in the hardware sales stakes by 2011.

The EIF chairman presented figures he arrived at by triangulating Screen Digest and IDG data. He also took into account factors such as the growth of hi-def and the grey gamer market, the emergence of new game engines and increasing ubiquity of wi-fi access. He said the active installed base for hardware is set to rise from 316 million to 500 million over the next three years, with "two big mega-powers" leading the charge.

According to Deering sales of the DS and any future iterations of the hardware will reach 150 million by 2011, while the figure for Wii will be 80 million. He predicted the installed base for PS3 will be 70 million, and said for PS2 it will be 90 million and PSP will be 70 million. In other words, Sony and Nintendo will each have sold 230 million machines.

Deering said he believes the Xbox 360 and any sequels will experience "decent growth", predicting an installed base of 40 million by 2011. He observed this figure is higher than some analysts are projecting, adding, "This is not necessarily because I've got some issues with Xbox 360 in Continental European countries et cetera, but because of the set-top box hi-def phenomenon."

In addition, Deering predicted the number of potential gamers will rise to 2.5 billion worldwide when also taking into account the installed bases for computers and mobile phones.

==> hum, PS3 70M ... wow, that is VERY high ...

Xbox360 only 40M ... seems possible

and Wii only 80M ... too low

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bardicverse on 11 August 2008

Well, of course Sony doesn't want to admit what might be inevitable- the Wii possibly/likely outselling the PS2 ltd. Believing Sony is kind of like believing the US gov't.

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bdbdbd on 11 August 2008

PS3 and 360 will reach around 70M combined at the end of the gen, but what really struck me was: PS2 installed base at 90 million.

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DOATS1 on 11 August 2008

very wishful thinking sony. with people spending less and less money as the years go by, i don't see the ps3 making those numbers.

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eliasg on 11 August 2008

LOL. 360 only 40 million

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libellule

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libellule on 11 August 2008

eliasg said:
LOL. 360 only 40 million

==> indeed, this was the less shocking number ...

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EaglesEye379 on 11 August 2008

Everyone has their own view and is to be respected for it but that is definitely very different from what the Chartz is currently trending for current and historical data (PS2 at 90m ???). Wow that he had the balls to put it all in a speech as well.

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trestres on 11 August 2008

Hmmm Wii will possibly be at 45 M at the end of the year. Cant imagine Wii selling less on its thirdf year than on its second, which means Wii will be at 70M approx by the end of 2009.

Also PS3 would need to sell 25M+ consoles per year to get there...

MS number seems correct though

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DOATS1 on 11 August 2008

libellule said:

eliasg said:
LOL. 360 only 40 million

==> indeed, this was the less shocking number ...

the thing is that that 40 million is an actual possibilty for the 360, but i honestly don't see the ps3 going that much further than the 360, although i do think the ps3 will be ahead of the 360 this gen.