The big if in these projection is basically the number of consoles that will sell.

From 8.7 to 12 million is quite a jump, though again, it's a 38% increase compared to 32% from last year.

If MSFT foresees this type of increases, then, maybe the 360 will be fairly successful and profitable.

FY Jun 06 - 5.0 million
FY Jun 07 - 6.6 million
FY Jun 08 - 8.7 million
Total - 20.3 million

FY Jun 09 - 12 million ??? (with price cut)
FY Jun 10 - 12 million???
FY Jun 11 - 12 million???

If XBox 360 lasts for another 3 fiscal years, with a constant (non-declining sales), then it would sell approx. 56 to 60 million consoles.
Not too bad at all I think - since they should be profitable for all those 3 years - probably $600 to $1 billion per year in profits

IF those assumptions hold up.

You must have a lot of spare time on your hands to do these sales analysis. I wonder how long does it take you to do these analysis? Good work bumidan.

 cool xD

http://www.isuppli.com/rptviewer/default.asp?a=37390&cmd=inline heres some basic information. $550 is your baseline you can assume from. Thats how much it initially cost.

very good job, mate!

But it still is vers guessy, because we just don't know the numbers MS is caculating with.

How many Zunes have been sold to this date? Is the Zune "big" in US? I know, it can't compete with the iPod. Is there marketing for the Zune? The Zune was never released in Europe, so I am asking.

Isn't Microsoft Surface a part of that division starting FY 08'? That may need to be included as well.

Great Job......long read, but great job. All-in-all, I think its going to be a great holiday for MS, and especially Gamers looking to pick-up the 360, it rocks!!

The GPU resize could allow by this estimate a 35% increase in the number of dies per wafer, or say a 35% reduction in cost assuming similar yields/cost of process etc.

http://www.tomshardware.com/news/microsoft-xbox-game,5335.html

Then consider simpler power regulation and supply on the motherboard, so simpler trace lines mean fewer layers would be needed on the PCB and lower absolute cost. You also have a smaller powersupply unit required because the power requirements are smaller.

Theres also the consideration that a smaller GPU requires less elaborate cooling, they could use Aluminium instead of copper for example (Not sure which metal they use to be honest) Or just use less of it.

Also every product has an expected failure rate, the cost of replacement/repair is added to the cost of the product. If the failure rate is lower then this cost is obviously lower as well.

@goddbless.... i hope not... i have a feeling though cool surface will end up going the way of ms bob, at least in the curretn forms of sphere and table.

Though if ms can field the first true multitouch laptop, i see good things for them, though i hope apple fields it first

Nice work bumidan!!!!
Thanks!!!