I wrote this a few weeks ago in "Who is Sony's Biggest Competition": ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Microsoft can roughly match Wii sales in N.A. I think. Wii and PS3 wrestle market away from the 360 by doing much better in Japan. PS3 sells less than 360 in first year in the West despite a better two month launch. Look at it like this (rounded to quarter million to make it easier): 360 - near 8.75 million Wii - 4.25 million PS3 - 1.75 million If Wii is 4.5 million behind, it would need to sell 400,000+ more units than 360/per the 11 remaining months of 2007 to catch up by the end of the year. Is that feasible? I don't think it is. I think Wii outsells 360 by around 300k in Japan per month, but settles within 50k+ or -50k of 360 sales in North America. Europe will be infatuated by the PS3 for at least a little while, so I don't see Wii outselling 360 by the needed 100k+ per month. Some months it will, others it won't. End of the year looks like this: Wii 10-13 million total (2006+2007) userbase 360 12-16 million total (2005+2006+2007) userbase PS3 7-11 million total (2006+2007) user base I'd call it 14-12-8. 360 selling around 5.5 million this year (3.5 million N.A., 1.8 others, .2 Japan). Wii selling around 9 million this year. (3.5 million N.A, 4 million Japan, 1.5 million others) PS3 selling around 6.5 million this year. (2 million N.A. 2.5 million Japan 2 million others) At those rates, it took Wii 11 months to make up 2.5 million (14-12 million instead of 8.75 to 4.25 million) of the 4.5 million defecit to 360 at the end of 2007. That would mean the leadership transition worldwide would be in late 2008, around October 1. In contrast, I have the PS3 losing .5 million sales ground to the 360 in 11 months. I think Sony will have one ridiculous year this generation and catch up alot that year, but not ever reach the top, somewhat like the Nintendo 64 in 1997. I think that year will be 2008 or 2009. Eventually, each console sells over 30 million. Wii as 1st in Japan, 2nd in the west, 360 as 1st in the west, last in Japan, PS3 as 2nd in Japan, 3rd in the West, but supported the longest by its hardware manufacturer.... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Since I wrote that, Wii is at 4.5 million, 360 is at 8.9 million. Publishers like THQ have said that they expect Wii sales of 5 million or so in N.A. and Europe in 2007. Throw in another 5 million for Japan and you have the upper range of Wii install base for December 31, 2007 - 18-19 million. Is that more than Microsoft will have? I don't see Microsoft selling more than 5 million in Europe or .5 million in Japan this year. That leaves North America, where 360 can sell 5-8 million units this year...I think the PS3 has a good March and April because of the Euro launch, a good December because of some killer apps..But overall it drops to third. By the end of 2008, I expect to see Wii in first by 2-4 million units, with Microsoft still in second, and Sony closing in, and about to pass Microsoft. End 2007: 360 12-18 million Wii 10-20 million PS3 8-14 million End 2008 Wii 16-32 million 360 18-25 million PS3 20-28 million

Im sure Nintendo would love to sell 15mill Wii's in fiscal 2007-2008 - but I can't see it happening. Again, its manufacturing. Nintendo have stated they are making about 700k/month at the moment, which comes to just under 8.5mill. I expect a forecast of about 10-12mill for the year - and assuming they can them all, that's a global install base of between 16-18mill by end of March 2008. They will have pull something BIG out of the bag to double manufacturing capacity in the next 4-6 months. (15mill = approx 1.25 mill / month). And regarding Halo3 - I have no doubt it will sell huge, and also sell truckloads of 360's. But - you would have to think that 60-70% of current 360 owners will buy it (as its the game they are waiting for). That accounts for about 5mill sales (globally), and more so if MS have say 10-11mill 360's out there by the end of the year (if not more). So Im wondering just how many *new* 360's it will sell. And another comment about 360's (this really annoyed me with PS2's). Its common knowledge that many of them (3%? 5%? 7%?) have been faulty. This means a discrepancy in the number of units actually "in-use" in the market (plus number sold, shipped, etc). Curious to know how these numbers are dealt with, and whether they count in shipping figures, sales figures, etc. If the number is 7% (and remains that high), that's 700,000 units once it hits 10mill worldwide. (of course a large % of these may be fixed, and sent back - rather than replaced). Or could they be "double-counted"? Make 2 units - one is sold, breaks, returned. 2nd one is shipped out (counts as 2 units shipped). Original one is fixed, and shipped out again (counts as 3 units shipped). 1 sale, 2 produced, 3 units shipped. Just curious as to how they handle this (this is worst case, and I doubt it actually happens).

Well if Wii continues to sell near PS2 pace, it will land under 4 million LTD in Japan by year end. The XBOX 360 will probably reach a little over .5 million LTD in Japan by year end. This will give the Wii a regional advantage of under 3.5 million consoles. Right now Wii might be emulating PS2, but its still selling out... and what if it has DS potential? Its hard to look at old trends and know just how much of a regional lead Wii will have by the end of the year, when Wii is basically establishing a new market... Halo is certainly a bigger seller than anything Nintendo has in its library. Well... IDK... Mario Sunshine was I think the first main series Mario game to miss the 10 million mark in sales... It still did over 5 million with bad hype and low GC adoption outside NA, two problems Galaxy and Wii address... And then of course Wii Sports, though its performance will be obscured by the pack-in, is a killer app IMO of much greater than Halo calibur. Regardless, having the top game of the year doesn't necesarily make you the top system of the year... The Wii will dominate the XBOX 360 in Japan, but you have to remember that the Japanese market is a declining market and it is unlikely Wii can match the PS2 total sales due to strong competition from PS3. Wii looks to establish a new market though. Wii doesn't play by the rules of the declining PS/PS2 market. And where is this supposed strong competition from the PS3? Wait until we see some before you say it could affect Wii sales... Note the I think Wii Sports is one of the most fun games I've played in a long time... however if I compare it to a real game... it was one of the most disappointingly games ever too. Note I wasn't refuting your claims about Wii Sports. The game has little content, little depth in the traditional sense, no complexity, etc... That is all true... I was just pointing out that none of that will matter considering the intended audience. And I agree with you; Wii Sports is one of the most fun games I've ever played. The Wii will succeed if there is more stuff as good as WiiSports comes out. And when I say succeed... I mean blow the doors off 360/PS3. Oh yeah. I'm glad you see this. Wii has the kind of unlimited potential PSone had and DS is exhibiting right now. Its a question of delivering the games now.

Perrin Kaplan said in an interview at DICE that Nintendo will soon be manufacturing over 1 million Wii's per month.

The Source I like your sales orders... However I think they will be closer. 360 - 14-16million Wii - 10-14million PS3 - 9-16million I give the PS3 a LARGE margin of error... Mainly because Sales right now are good. (NA). And from what I have read... Europeans are drooling over PS3. (most PS3 fanatics that exist are european... and they dont have one yet.. but have seen all the good) (Trailers for MotorStorm, LAIR, Heavenly Sword) And well... Know all the bad. Yet they are still dominatly PS3. I think America Will sway away from Wii as PS3 gets hardcore games worth buying. And the 360 has nowhere to go buy down in all markets... cept japan... wich you cant go down lower) The PS3 in japan. This is where my biggest number flux comes from. Will they buy it... or not. If Japan starts buying PS3s... I see the 16million. My reason is... NA: Wii has a ~800,000 unit lead. That is the diffrence from being the 'must have' console from 'not' in the holiday season alone. It's not too far behind... and I dont think it's monthly sales are too far behind either for the PS3 to pass the Wii in 2007 in NA. Europe region: The Wii has been met with open arms and alot of questions. Nintendo is shipping the fewest units to this massive region. Sony is planning on a MONSTER launch in March. There's a good chance PS3 might pass Wii in april in europe. Once agian. The biggest market in the world. Japan: The Wii is openly loved. And the PS3 is unwanted. As soon as software starts to show up. Will it change? or not? If the PS3 is accepted I see it selling 5million units in 2007. If it's not. I dont see more than 3. Sony has MASSIVE production. Bigger than anyone else. And Sony is only upping their production. Sony plans on shipping 6million PS3's by the end of march. Nintendo will be lucky to have 6.5million shipped. Yet... Nintendo launched with about 2.5million units. My point on that is... In 4 months... sony would have shipped 4.75million... While Nintendo would be lucky to have shipped... 4million. I am useing shipped because neither are 100% soldout now. Sony can easily ship 15million PS3's by the end of 07. Nintendo will peak out at around 15million as well. If sales keep up thought the year for both Wii and PS3. I think they will both remain soldout for holiday 2007. Wich makes production the most imporant thing. And Sony has that. Microsoft is no-longer producing 360s. They will start agian once their stock has sold-though. Microsoft has the production, but not the demand. My point on the PS3 and Wii is... They are both Highly sought after. Sony has higher production... and a smaller market. I didnt. I think the Wii looks like crap on HDTV... But I know it would look just as bad on a 40inch LCD SDTV. I'm refering to throwing them at the screen. (I didnt. I'm not that crazy) It's only a free game in america. Europe/Japan have to pay for it. When I was saying Nintendo is hurting themselfs. I mean... Europe is the biggest game market right now. They are shipping fewest numbers there... and PS3 will soon be launched. (with games) That is the market that worries me the most for nintendo. And I hate to say this... but European games intrest me the most. Then Japan. My point is... Europe = Biggest game market Europe = smallest number of Wii.

I consider myself a bit above the non-gaming crowd(that is, I game more then the average), never really owned any console since....a hand me down Famicom(but I played a lot of RTS on the PC). I scoffed at Wii Sports, thought its cool but nothing to brag about. Boy, am I wrong. I have logged more hours on Wii Sports than I have with Zelda. Though I am almost done with Zelda(my first Zelda game ever) and I dont want it to end yet, so thats partially the reason I am not in a hurry to finish it up. Anyway, I am blown away by the tech demo called Wii Sports. I honestly believe this thing will carry the Wii for the next 6 months. It alone will be responsible for the lead that the Wii is gonna enjoy over the PS3 and the 360 and I wouldnt hesistate to call it the Wii equivalent of the DS' Nintendogs/Brain Age combo, despite the perceived heavier 360 line up. It's that good. Getting an average score of 7-7.5 on traditional gaming review sites, it is probably one of the most underrated game of our time, me thinks. I also agree that I thought it was shallow at first. Until I got addicted to the whole Fitness Age thinggie and the practice "minigames", which, in my eyes, are worth the main games themselves. I do hate boxing but Tennis, Golf and Bowling more than make up for those deficiencies. And my dad. Oh. My. God. The poor guy is just addicted to Wii Sports Golf. We got the System on December 28th yet he never fails to play Wii Golf at least once a day up to this day, and when he has free time, can play the dang thing for around two hours strsight. And to think, he complained about the "cartoonish" graphics at first, and he's a huge fan of Grand theft auto(he doesn't play anything else). /end rant

By the end of March, Nintendo will have shipped 6 million units. Assuming they ship the same amount in Q2 as they did in Q1 (unlikely assumption) that will put Nintendo at around 9 million shipped by the end of June. Microsoft has sold a total of 9 million units as of today. So the question is can Nintendo sell more units from July till the end of the year than Microsoft can sell from today till year end.