When will Wii surpass 360 (if ever)?

[Erik Aston]

Well if Wii continues to sell near PS2 pace, it will land under 4 million LTD in Japan by year end. The XBOX 360 will probably reach a little over .5 million LTD in Japan by year end. This will give the Wii a regional advantage of under 3.5 million consoles. Right now Wii might be emulating PS2, but its still selling out... and what if it has DS potential? Its hard to look at old trends and know just how much of a regional lead Wii will have by the end of the year, when Wii is basically establishing a new market... Halo is certainly a bigger seller than anything Nintendo has in its library. Well... IDK... Mario Sunshine was I think the first main series Mario game to miss the 10 million mark in sales... It still did over 5 million with bad hype and low GC adoption outside NA, two problems Galaxy and Wii address... And then of course Wii Sports, though its performance will be obscured by the pack-in, is a killer app IMO of much greater than Halo calibur. Regardless, having the top game of the year doesn't necesarily make you the top system of the year... The Wii will dominate the XBOX 360 in Japan, but you have to remember that the Japanese market is a declining market and it is unlikely Wii can match the PS2 total sales due to strong competition from PS3. Wii looks to establish a new market though. Wii doesn't play by the rules of the declining PS/PS2 market. And where is this supposed strong competition from the PS3? Wait until we see some before you say it could affect Wii sales... Note the I think Wii Sports is one of the most fun games I've played in a long time... however if I compare it to a real game... it was one of the most disappointingly games ever too. Note I wasn't refuting your claims about Wii Sports. The game has little content, little depth in the traditional sense, no complexity, etc... That is all true... I was just pointing out that none of that will matter considering the intended audience. And I agree with you; Wii Sports is one of the most fun games I've ever played. The Wii will succeed if there is more stuff as good as WiiSports comes out. And when I say succeed... I mean blow the doors off 360/PS3. Oh yeah. I'm glad you see this. Wii has the kind of unlimited potential PSone had and DS is exhibiting right now. Its a question of delivering the games now.