When will Wii surpass 360 (if ever)?

[TheSource]

I wrote this a few weeks ago in "Who is Sony's Biggest Competition": ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Microsoft can roughly match Wii sales in N.A. I think. Wii and PS3 wrestle market away from the 360 by doing much better in Japan. PS3 sells less than 360 in first year in the West despite a better two month launch. Look at it like this (rounded to quarter million to make it easier): 360 - near 8.75 million Wii - 4.25 million PS3 - 1.75 million If Wii is 4.5 million behind, it would need to sell 400,000+ more units than 360/per the 11 remaining months of 2007 to catch up by the end of the year. Is that feasible? I don't think it is. I think Wii outsells 360 by around 300k in Japan per month, but settles within 50k+ or -50k of 360 sales in North America. Europe will be infatuated by the PS3 for at least a little while, so I don't see Wii outselling 360 by the needed 100k+ per month. Some months it will, others it won't. End of the year looks like this: Wii 10-13 million total (2006+2007) userbase 360 12-16 million total (2005+2006+2007) userbase PS3 7-11 million total (2006+2007) user base I'd call it 14-12-8. 360 selling around 5.5 million this year (3.5 million N.A., 1.8 others, .2 Japan). Wii selling around 9 million this year. (3.5 million N.A, 4 million Japan, 1.5 million others) PS3 selling around 6.5 million this year. (2 million N.A. 2.5 million Japan 2 million others) At those rates, it took Wii 11 months to make up 2.5 million (14-12 million instead of 8.75 to 4.25 million) of the 4.5 million defecit to 360 at the end of 2007. That would mean the leadership transition worldwide would be in late 2008, around October 1. In contrast, I have the PS3 losing .5 million sales ground to the 360 in 11 months. I think Sony will have one ridiculous year this generation and catch up alot that year, but not ever reach the top, somewhat like the Nintendo 64 in 1997. I think that year will be 2008 or 2009. Eventually, each console sells over 30 million. Wii as 1st in Japan, 2nd in the west, 360 as 1st in the west, last in Japan, PS3 as 2nd in Japan, 3rd in the West, but supported the longest by its hardware manufacturer.... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Since I wrote that, Wii is at 4.5 million, 360 is at 8.9 million. Publishers like THQ have said that they expect Wii sales of 5 million or so in N.A. and Europe in 2007. Throw in another 5 million for Japan and you have the upper range of Wii install base for December 31, 2007 - 18-19 million. Is that more than Microsoft will have? I don't see Microsoft selling more than 5 million in Europe or .5 million in Japan this year. That leaves North America, where 360 can sell 5-8 million units this year...I think the PS3 has a good March and April because of the Euro launch, a good December because of some killer apps..But overall it drops to third. By the end of 2008, I expect to see Wii in first by 2-4 million units, with Microsoft still in second, and Sony closing in, and about to pass Microsoft. End 2007: 360 12-18 million Wii 10-20 million PS3 8-14 million End 2008 Wii 16-32 million 360 18-25 million PS3 20-28 million