When will Wii surpass 360 (if ever)?

[shams]

Im sure Nintendo would love to sell 15mill Wii's in fiscal 2007-2008 - but I can't see it happening. Again, its manufacturing. Nintendo have stated they are making about 700k/month at the moment, which comes to just under 8.5mill. I expect a forecast of about 10-12mill for the year - and assuming they can them all, that's a global install base of between 16-18mill by end of March 2008. They will have pull something BIG out of the bag to double manufacturing capacity in the next 4-6 months. (15mill = approx 1.25 mill / month). And regarding Halo3 - I have no doubt it will sell huge, and also sell truckloads of 360's. But - you would have to think that 60-70% of current 360 owners will buy it (as its the game they are waiting for). That accounts for about 5mill sales (globally), and more so if MS have say 10-11mill 360's out there by the end of the year (if not more). So Im wondering just how many *new* 360's it will sell. And another comment about 360's (this really annoyed me with PS2's). Its common knowledge that many of them (3%? 5%? 7%?) have been faulty. This means a discrepancy in the number of units actually "in-use" in the market (plus number sold, shipped, etc). Curious to know how these numbers are dealt with, and whether they count in shipping figures, sales figures, etc. If the number is 7% (and remains that high), that's 700,000 units once it hits 10mill worldwide. (of course a large % of these may be fixed, and sent back - rather than replaced). Or could they be "double-counted"? Make 2 units - one is sold, breaks, returned. 2nd one is shipped out (counts as 2 units shipped). Original one is fixed, and shipped out again (counts as 3 units shipped). 1 sale, 2 produced, 3 units shipped. Just curious as to how they handle this (this is worst case, and I doubt it actually happens).