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Forums - Sales Discussion - Most pathetic sales predictions you have heard?

hunter_alien on 08 July 2008

Wii selling over 500 million lifetime ... wait ... no , Wii selling over 200 million was also pretty damn pathetic :P Oh , and what about DS reaching 85% of the handheld market . Man that made me laugh for minutes in a row lol

So yeah , Nintendo fans made some pretty damn idiotic predictions to ...



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Lafiel on 08 July 2008
ikilledkenny said:
The worst?
The Wii being Nintendo's last console.

 

i think that one might even be true, for in my opinion there is quite a good chance that at least one of the next gen "consoles" actually will be a "handheld" and nintendo would be the company which seems the most likely to do so



tuoyo on 08 July 2008

I think mine is that from VGChartz own renowned analyst Leo J that Wii would just completely stop selling when GTAIV gets released.



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kingofwale on 08 July 2008

anybody mentioned JL's 500 million Wii LT sales yet?



Soriku (Feb 10/08): In 5 years the PS3/360 will be dead.

KH3 bet: "If KH3 comes to Wii exclusive, I will take a 1 month of sig/avatar by otheres open a thread apologize and praise you guys' brilliance." http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=50&id=18379
Original cast: Badonkadonkhr, sc94597 allaboutthegames885, kingofwale, Soriku, ctk495, skeezer, RDBRaptor, Mirson,

Episode 1: OOPSY!
selnor: Too Human I even expect 3-4 mill entire life and 500,000 first day. GoW2 ( expect 7 - 9 million entire life and over 2 mill first day), Fable 2 (expect 5-6 million entire life and 1.5 mill fist day) BK3 (expect 4 - 5 mill sales entire life and 1 mill first day).. Tales/IU/TLR should get to 2 or 3 million! post id: 868878
Episode 2:
Letsdance: FFXIII (PS3+360) first week in NA = 286K
According to pre-order rate in week 13 (post id: 2902544)
slimeattack on 08 July 2008
eliasg said:
PS3 will outsell 360 this year...

 

But PS3 will outsell 360 WW this year...



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Just_Ben on 08 July 2008
FishyJoe said:

This graph created by a paid analyst is always worth a laugh.

Wait, are my eyes wrong or does the Wii install base shrink right there from 2010 to 2011?

 



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slimeattack on 08 July 2008
Just_Ben said:
FishyJoe said:

This graph created by a paid analyst is always worth a laugh.

Wait, are my eyes wrong or does the Wii install base shrink right there from 2010 to 2011?

 

People will suddenly start giving back Wiis to the shop:)

 



Just_Ben on 08 July 2008
RolStoppable said:
Sky Render said:
I think a link to the topic where John Lucas said that is in order, ameratsu. That's a bit too outlandish even for him to be credible without proof.

Does it help if I confirm that he really said that the PS3 won't make it beyond 2009?

But speaking of John Lucas predictions, his worst one in my opinion was when he said that Madden 08 sales will determine in which direction this generation continues. Madden 08 for Wii fell clearly short of his expectations (that it would sell the most out of current gen systems) and yet the Wii's success was absolutely unaffected.

Clearly? Ok I am now scared because I also think that Madden 08 will be the end to the argument :"Third party can't sell on the Wii". It will come close to the 360 version (at least what I am thinking). Not at first, but with its leg. Where did he said that. Am I really that crazy to actually agree to JL once?

 



Join up to the VGC Mario Kart Wii GP European League!

Or the VGC Mario Kart Wii GP Australian League!

Or the VGC Mario Kart Wii GP American League!

Or the VGC Halo 3 American League!

Or the  VGC Call Of Duty PS3 League!

slimeattack on 08 July 2008

That 360 GTA IV will outsell PS3 GTA IV 2:1



Viper1 on 08 July 2008

These.....


Strategy Analytics [Jul-05] (Worldwide Through 2012)
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (61%)
Xbox 360 - 58.8 million (30%)
Nintendo Wii - 18 million (9%)
Total - 198.6 million

Kagan Research (U.S. Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 56.5%
Xbox 360 - 28.5%
Nintendo Wii - 15%

Piper Jaffray (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 19.6 million (48.3%)
Sony PS3 - 15.5 million (38.2%)
Nintendo Wii - 5.5 million (13.5%)
Total - 40.6 million

Citigroup (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 19.8 million
Sony PS3 - 11.0 million

UBS [Jan-06] (U.S. Through 2009)
Sony PS3 - 23 million (43%)
Xbox 360 - 20 million (38%)
Nintendo Wii - 10 million (19%)
Total - 53 million

Friedman Billings Ramsey (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 24.6 million (40.7%)
Sony PS3 - 23.3 million (38.6%)
Nintendo Wii - 12.5 million (20.7%)
Total - 60.4 million

In-Stat (Worldwide Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 50%
Xbox 360 - 28.6%
Nintendo Wii - 21.2%

Wedbush Morgan Securities (U.S. and Europe Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 45%
Xbox 360 - 35%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

Merrill Lynch (Worldwide Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 47%
Sony PS3 - 33%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

IDG (U.S. Through 2008)
Xbox 360 - 15.5 million (43.3%)
Sony PS3 - 13.5 million (37.7%)
Nintendo Wii - 6.8 million (19.0%)
Total - 35.8 million

P.J. McNealy (Worldwide Through 2007)
Xbox 360 - 21 to 23 million
Sony PS3 - 13 to 16 million
Nintendo Wii - 12 to 14 million

Yankee Group (North America Through 2011)
Sony PS3 - 30 million (44%)
Xbox 360 - 27 million (40%)
Nintendo Wii - 11 million (16%)
Total - 68 million

Nomura Securities (Worldwide Through 2011)
Sony PS3 - 71 million
Nintendo Wii - 40 million

Enterbrain / Famitsu (Worldwide Through 2009)
Sony PS3 - 34 million (39.1%)
Xbox 360 - 28 million (32.2%)
Nintendo Wii - 25 million (28.7%)
Total - 87 million

IDG (North America Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 23.9 million (39.2%)
Sony PS3 - 23.5 million (38.5%)
Nintendo Wii - 13.6 million (22.3%)
Total - 61 million

Merrill Lynch (Worldwide Through March 2011)
Xbox 360 - 39%
Sony PS3 - 34%
Nintendo Wii - 27%

Strategy Analytics [Nov-06] (Worldwide Through 2012)
Sony PS3 - 121.8 million (59.47%)
Xbox 360 - 59.7 million (29.15%)
Nintendo Wii - 23.3 million (11.38%)
Total - 204.8 million

SFG Research (North America Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 29.4 million (43.8%)
Sony PS3 - 24.2 million (36.1%)
Nintendo Wii - 13.5 million (20.1%)
Total - 67.1 million

SFG Research (Worldwide Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 62 million (46.6%)
Xbox 360 - 46 million (34.6%)
Nintendo Wii - 25 million (18.8%)
Total - 133 million

Screen Digest (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 42%
Sony PS3 - 38%
Nintendo Wii - 20%

Screen Digest (Japan Through 2010)
Sony PS3 - 64%
Nintendo Wii - 25%
Xbox 360 - 11%

IDC (Worldwide Through 2008)
Nintendo Wii - 32.1 million (37%)
Xbox 360 - 30.4 million (35%)
Sony PS3 - 24.5 million (28%)
Total - 87 million

UBS [May-07] (U.S. Through 2010)
Xbox 360 - 22 million (35.5%)
Sony PS3 - 21 million (33.9%)
Nintendo Wii - 19 million (30.6%)
Tolal - 62 million

 

 

 

IDC analyst prediction in bold is the only one to even come close to being accurate.



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