http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=25843

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has told GamesIndustry.biz that he believes a higher spec, HD-enabled "Wii 2" could be on the shelves "in a couple of years".

Pachter's comments came in response to those made by SEGA executive Scott Steinberg, who expressed concern about the long term future of Nintendo's console.

"I think that a lot of people consider the Wii a "fad", and attribute that conclusion to the type of people who have been attracted to the Wii so far," Pachter said, observing that many publishers "don't know what to do with" the new demographics of female and older gamers.

"Sega, of course, has games like Sonic that resonate well with this audience, so I'm not singling them out as having an issue, but it appears to me that these non-traditional consumers baffle most of the publishers," he continued.

"As they are unaccustomed to dealing with them this early in the cycle, they have to justify their oversight in not anticipating the strength of the Wii with this group by labelling the group as having no staying power, resulting in the labelling of the Wii as a fad."

With regard to Steinberg's suggestion that developers are reaching the limits of creative possibility when it comes to the Wii's remote control, Pachter said, "I can't begin to imagine what is on the drawing board for the Wii, but I can say that most developers I've spoken with are extemely excited about the potential for the console... I believe that we've only just scratched the surface.

"Also, Scott's analysis presupposes that we have seen the last in hardware innovation from Nintendo," he went on.

"I disagree. It's easy to envision a Wii 2 in a couple of years that runs at full HD, and has both a Wii-mote and an analog controller, so that all games can be ported to it.

"If Nintendo were to introduce such a device, it would be fully comparable to the Xbox 360 - perhaps it wouldn't have Blu-ray, so a comparison to the PS3 may be unfair - and would likely have most of the same third party content as the other two devices."

But Pachter did agree with Steinberg that the PS3 "will ultimately come out on top". Victory, he predicted, will be the result of a console price cut to USD 199 and the success of Blu-ray.

Price point is key, said Pachter - observing that 80 per cent of all Xboxes sold in the US were purchased for USD 199 or less, with the figure approximately the same for PlayStation 2.

"Sony is around 6 million units behind Microsoft, and should be able to make up the gap - barely - by 2009 if they price the console correctly. They will likely be 9 million units behind the Wii by the end of this year, so it may take a bit longer to catch Nintendo, likely 2011 or so," Pachter concluded.

I think the PS3 has a good shot unlike most of the people on this forum because this generation is not like the others in that a mainstream console is very heavily priced thus holding back a lot of people from buying it thus meaning it will gain momentum as it goes. The Wii can only lose momentum in the long run (this Wii 1.5 or Wii HD comes in) because it will peak sooner.

The end of the generation the 3 consoles will be very close with either Wii or PS3 having a slight lead over the other two.

It kinda makes sense, but then again Pachter just pulls predictions out of his ass sometimes...

The XBox 360 loses momentium every week because the mainly because the number of people who are willing to buy a $400 is pretty limited ... It will be years (and several price cuts) before the PS3 can even build enough momentium to challenge the Wii on a weekly basis.

The Wii HD may come before 2011 but only if the Wii has problems selling. It will (likely) be in a completely different price range to its competition which matches closely to people who don't have HDTVs so I don't expect "shiny graphics" will kill the Wii. Consider that in 2008 the Wii (with Wii sports) will likely be $150 or less while the XBox 360 is $250 and the PS3 is $400+.

If I'm correct and there is only 15 Million people worldwide who are willing to spend more than $400 on a game console how will the PS3 maintain third party support in 2008/2009?

If this was true, then the console (Wii) must already be in development. I'm surprised we didn't hear anything about this sooner. Unless Pachter is just pulling out of his ass.

He makes some logical arguments, but it seems like his track record on predictions isn't very good. I guess only time will tell.

But the thing is Pachter seems to imply that Wii will get so far ahead (presuming it peaks in 2007-2008), that it will take PS3 three years of time to catch Wii.  This is despite Wii having a larger userbase to develop for, and 360 outselling PS3 in the HD arena.  It also ignores that Wii even in 2009 and beyond, is going to be far cheaper than PS3 ($300 vs. $129? instead of like $600 vs $250)...Xbox 360 also seems to be the viable alternative right now, since big games in Japan are essentially forced to go Wii, DS, PSP, or PS2 if they want to have any fair shot at selling over 300k.

Sony I think will be all right in the end, because they will come in second in Japan, and probably in Europe as well, but I see PS3 3rd in the Americas market (with 15-25 million sold).  I don't think they will sell under 40 million units, but I also don't think they will sell over 65-70 million units.  Basically, if Sony timed the price drops perfectly and had PS3 last longer than Wii, I can see PS3 beating Wii.  My worst case scenario for Wii at this point is about 50 million units though (it is tracking ahead of PS2 in the USA by about 10%, and in 3 years PS2 - by Dec 03' - had already done 20 million already in the USA, Japan will have similar numbers as well, and Europe is close).

360 I can see doing 60 million if everything goes perfectly, but a more likely total is about 35-45 million I think.  I can see alot of 360 or PS3 owners picking up a Wii in time, which means even if Nintendo only gets 25-40 million one-console gamers, they will still sell the most in the end.  Except for the hardcore/rich it will seem silly to most people to get PS3 and 360 at current prices, or even mass market prices ($200), when the content is likely to end up so similar.

The timeframe for the PS3 to catch up to the Wii continues to fall behind at a rate of anywhere from 5:1 to 2:1 with recent monthly sales. If those ratios maintain, that means 2-5 years for PS3 to match each year of Wii sales, which gets perilously close to the full console lifecycle at some point in the not-too-distant future if sales don't improve. That could justify a 2009-2011 prediction for PS3 even if it starts selling at parity in 2008.

Why do analysts keep dogging the 360? It's pretty obvious that the Wii will have the lead shortly but I don't see how a price drop to $400 in 2008 is going to help Sony that much when MS can easily drop the 360 price to $200/300 and still keep it profitable while Sony will continue to bleed money.

Why do we always hear about the price advantage of the Wii, Sony's soon-to-come price cuts, and nothing about MS's position to start aggressively competing with the Wii on a price level whenever they choose?

I don't think the 360 will end up anywhere near the Wii and I think the PS3 will ultimately gain ground on MS in 2009 and beyond, but I don't see how it will be enough to actually surpass the 360 in WW sales. By 2009, the 360 will be $150/250 at most while the PS3 will be struggling to get to a $300 price point.

In short, anaylysts (Pachter in particular) don't know crap about the industry they continue to talk about.

QFT. Sometimes I feel that these analysts gloss over so many things in their theories... It's very easy to talk about the good things which will happen for the PS3 in the future, but what about the competition's effect?

Do they really think that brand name is that important?