But the thing is Pachter seems to imply that Wii will get so far ahead (presuming it peaks in 2007-2008), that it will take PS3 three years of time to catch Wii. This is despite Wii having a larger userbase to develop for, and 360 outselling PS3 in the HD arena. It also ignores that Wii even in 2009 and beyond, is going to be far cheaper than PS3 ($300 vs. $129? instead of like $600 vs $250)...Xbox 360 also seems to be the viable alternative right now, since big games in Japan are essentially forced to go Wii, DS, PSP, or PS2 if they want to have any fair shot at selling over 300k.
Sony I think will be all right in the end, because they will come in second in Japan, and probably in Europe as well, but I see PS3 3rd in the Americas market (with 15-25 million sold). I don't think they will sell under 40 million units, but I also don't think they will sell over 65-70 million units. Basically, if Sony timed the price drops perfectly and had PS3 last longer than Wii, I can see PS3 beating Wii. My worst case scenario for Wii at this point is about 50 million units though (it is tracking ahead of PS2 in the USA by about 10%, and in 3 years PS2 - by Dec 03' - had already done 20 million already in the USA, Japan will have similar numbers as well, and Europe is close).
360 I can see doing 60 million if everything goes perfectly, but a more likely total is about 35-45 million I think. I can see alot of 360 or PS3 owners picking up a Wii in time, which means even if Nintendo only gets 25-40 million one-console gamers, they will still sell the most in the end. Except for the hardcore/rich it will seem silly to most people to get PS3 and 360 at current prices, or even mass market prices ($200), when the content is likely to end up so similar.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
