Nintendo wanted to take the Wii in a different direction, and the market has responded well, so why would they release a new system and kill the Wii with a 3 yr life span, that is beyond stupid.

The only way there would be a HD version that soon is if there could be some addon that would allow it, but not a whole new system.

And if the PS3 comtinues to be outsold this year and until 09, how could they ever come back. Nintendo will have the market share, the 3rd parties, and the price, Sony would have nothing to offer to outsell the Wii.

And by then the Wii will be $99 with Wii Sports and Wii Play and a second controller, and will still be profitable.

There isn't much I agree with in here, but I did think this line was valid:

"Pachter said, observing that many publishers "don't know what to do with" the new demographics of female and older gamers."

This is a problem that I think Nintendo is going to run in to. Third parties may suspect -- or even know -- that there is more money to be made on the Wii than on the 360 or PS3, but they simply will not know how to cash in. They just have no idea what types of games to make. 

N'gai Croal described this as: "It's possible that 3rd party companies are genetically unequipped to survive in a market where Nintendo is king" (okay, I admit the wording might be slightly off), and to some extent, I think he's right.

Nintendo is way ahead of everyone else. Which sounds like an enormous compliment, but to some extent it's not; the DS has been out for 3 years, and thus far no companies have succesfully tapped into the Nintendogs/Brain Age/Big Brain phenomenon. The DS hardware keeps selling and selling, the Nintendo software keeps piling up sales, and yet no one is catching on. 

Jesus Christ, the idiocy of these two (the Sega PR guy and Pachter) is nothing less than astounding. I want some of the crack that these so-called "analysts" are smokin'.  Let's try to take some of these issues one at a time.

• Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has told GamesIndustry.biz that he believes a higher spec, HD-enabled "Wii 2" could be on the shelves "in a couple of years".

Some of the previous posters have already explained this and done a good job of it, but for a quick summary: Nintendo is currently doing about 60% of the "next-gen" console sales, and that's with a severely supply-contrained Wii. In fact, since the PS3 European launch window, the Wii has outsold combined 360 + PS3 sales worldwide every single week. Every week. The sales data shows the Wii as a gigantic, runaway success. So the folks at Nintendo would have to be the biggest idiots imaginable to introduce a new system! Why would they do that? To introduce HD? The market is clearly showing that the average consumer does not care about having an HD console!!! Seriously, it's not that complicated. The gaming industry has been focused on their tiny niche of high-end users for so long, it's gotten completely out of touch with what the average buyer wants.

I can understand a statement like that coming in Fall 2006, but we've got six months of sales data by now emphatically contradicting this logic. Shaking my head here...

• But Pachter did agree with Steinberg that the PS3 "will ultimately come out on top". Victory, he predicted, will be the result of a console price cut to USD 199 and the success of Blu-ray.

*Jaw hanging open*

Looks like Pachter and this Steinberg are passing the stuff around again.  Do they read the sales charts?! At all?! Do we even need to discuss this idiocy? I expect this from fanboys on the gamefaqs message boards, not industry analysts in senior positions.

• "Sony is around 6 million units behind Microsoft, and should be able to make up the gap - barely - by 2009 if they price the console correctly. They will likely be 9 million units behind the Wii by the end of this year, so it may take a bit longer to catch Nintendo, likely 2011 or so," Pachter concluded.

Pachter seems determined to stick with his initial projections, no matter how much evidence to the contrary the real world offers otherwise. In ordinary situations this is pretty harmless, but it becomes disturbing when individuals are placed in positions of authority and still cling stubbornly to pre-formed opinions. There is this persistent denial in the gaming industry right now, where enormous numbers of gamers and industry execs just seem to want to ignore the facts. I'm looking at the front page of gamespot today, and the headline is "Xbox vs. PS3: Graphics Comparison!" which I'm sure appeals to the small demographic of hardcore technophiles that can discuss the ins and outs of 1080i versus 720p resolutions. But that's only a tiny minority of the consumer market... So much of the discussion focuses on 360 vs. PS3, with the Wii treated like the red-headed stepchild, shoved aside with "it's selling well now, but when ____ game is released the 360/PS3 will dominate" logic. It's as though the market is still being viewed through bifurcated lenses, and the Wii's amazing sales don't even matter (as if casual gamers somehow "don't count" when buying games!) Seriously, just poke around on gaming news websites and you'll see stories like this at least once a week.

I keep wondering when these developers, publishers, and "hardcore" fans who scorn the Wii and anything less than cutting-edge graphics are going to wake up and see the reality of the situation. We're six months in, and little seems to be changing. Maybe it's going to take record losses by Sony, Microsoft, and third-party developers/publishers to change their mindset. I don't want that to happen, but in my mind it looks almost unavoidable as they continue to pursue power for power's sake with out of control expenses.

Bodhesatva said it correctly: The DS hardware keeps selling and selling, the Nintendo software keeps piling up sales, and yet no one is catching on. 

I think the flawed assumption which many people (including third parties) seem to be making is that developers have to drastically change their approach to cash in on the Wii; I'm not sure if this is actually true. This is essentially the same mistake many people made with the DS even though Nintendo continued to be successful making Mario Kart and The New Super Mario Bros. which don't use the touch screen heavily.

You can make a very good RPG using the Wiimote as a NES controller, and there are tons of games which work well on a Keyboard and Mouse that can translate onto the Wii. If developers focused on making games with good interfaces rather than games with motion control they would be far better off.

Even beyond that it isn't that difficult to tap into the non-gamer market. You will find that many of the people Nintendo has captured are people who play flash games. Go to a flash game site and play dozens of games and I'm certain you will see a ton of interesting game ideas ...

this is nintendo your talking about lol. They don't reveal nothing. IF they are gonna reveal anything it be pointless this year as alot of people get pissed off. My guess is if anything will happen with a HD wii then it will be announced at E3 next year or two, and it would launch for christmas 2009. My guess is on the latter since 2008 launch would be stupid since the current wii is selling well....

The ONLY way Nintendo would EVER release another console by 2009 is if the Wii really WAS a fad and started selling exactly how the PS3 is selling now.

A three year life cycle is idiocy.

Sullla said: Jesus Christ, the idiocy of these two (the Sega PR guy and Pachter) is nothing less than astounding. I want some of the crack that these so-called "analysts" are smokin'. Let's try to take some of these issues one at a time. Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has told GamesIndustry.biz that he believes a higher spec, HD-enabled "Wii 2" could be on the shelves "in a couple of years". Some of the previous posters have already explained this and done a good job of it, but for a quick summary: Nintendo is currently doing about 60% of the "next-gen" console sales, and that's with a severely supply-contrained Wii. In fact, since the PS3 European launch window, the Wii has outsold combined 360 + PS3 sales worldwide every single week. Every week. The sales data shows the Wii as a gigantic, runaway success. So the folks at Nintendo would have to be the biggest idiots imaginable to introduce a new system! Why would they do that? To introduce HD? The market is clearly showing that the average consumer does not care about having an HD console!!! Seriously, it's not that complicated. The gaming industry has been focused on their tiny niche of high-end users for so long, it's gotten completely out of touch with what the average buyer wants. I can understand a statement like that coming in Fall 2006, but we've got six months of sales data by now emphatically contradicting this logic. Shaking my head here... But Pachter did agree with Steinberg that the PS3 "will ultimately come out on top". Victory, he predicted, will be the result of a console price cut to USD 199 and the success of Blu-ray. *Jaw hanging open* Looks like Pachter and this Steinberg are passing the stuff around again. Do they read the sales charts?! At all?! Do we even need to discuss this idiocy? I expect this from fanboys on the gamefaqs message boards, not industry analysts in senior positions. "Sony is around 6 million units behind Microsoft, and should be able to make up the gap - barely - by 2009 if they price the console correctly. They will likely be 9 million units behind the Wii by the end of this year, so it may take a bit longer to catch Nintendo, likely 2011 or so," Pachter concluded.   Pachter seems determined to stick with his initial projections, no matter how much evidence to the contrary the real world offers otherwise. In ordinary situations this is pretty harmless, but it becomes disturbing when individuals are placed in positions of authority and still cling stubbornly to pre-formed opinions. There is this persistent denial in the gaming industry right now, where enormous numbers of gamers and industry execs just seem to want to ignore the facts. I'm looking at the front page of gamespot today, and the headline is "Xbox vs. PS3: Graphics Comparison!" which I'm sure appeals to the small demographic of hardcore technophiles that can discuss the ins and outs of 1080i versus 720p resolutions. But that's only a tiny minority of the consumer market... So much of the discussion focuses on 360 vs. PS3, with the Wii treated like the red-headed stepchild, shoved aside with "it's selling well now, but when ____ game is released the 360/PS3 will dominate" logic. It's as though the market is still being viewed through bifurcated lenses, and the Wii's amazing sales don't even matter (as if casual gamers somehow "don't count" when buying games!) Seriously, just poke around on gaming news websites and you'll see stories like this at least once a week. I keep wondering when these developers, publishers, and "hardcore" fans who scorn the Wii and anything less than cutting-edge graphics are going to wake up and see the reality of the situation. We're six months in, and little seems to be changing. Maybe it's going to take record losses by Sony, Microsoft, and third-party developers/publishers to change their mindset. I don't want that to happen, but in my mind it looks almost unavoidable as they continue to pursue power for power's sake with out of control expenses. Bodhesatva said it correctly: The DS hardware keeps selling and selling, the Nintendo software keeps piling up sales, and yet no one is catching on.

Excellent post. Very articulate and backed by substantial evidence. 

One amusing little critique: we're actually 7 months into this console race now, not 6, which actually only strengthens your argument.  

Shoot Pachter! This idiot shouldn't even be given a platform to speak.

I'd rather hear the market analysis of Kwaad than this jabroni.

Put him on the same boat as Jack Thompson and Uwe Boll and never speak of losers like that again.

John Lucas 

some points are good but I think that the 360 and PS3 have a long battle ahead of them, the PS3 will have to do some serious convincing trough 1st and 2nd party games since almost all 3rd party games will go to both. the 360 will not easily be defeted, Japan is not going so well for both eather so I think it will be a long way for the PS3 while the Wii can maintain it´s hype through new uses of the wii-mote and new add ons to it, (a gun is not the only possibility, we haven´t even seen a game using 2 wii-motes so I bet Nintendo can pull some bunnys out of its hat), what could really matter is to see how this x-mas goes and who cuts price (and how much), what games like Halo3, GTA4..... wil do is also going to be interesting, exspecially 3rd party games, who will get the bigger boost and that sort of stuff

 Wii fanatic a little?