Pachter: Wii 2 (w/ HD) May come in a few years, PS3 to catch Wii in 2011

[Bodhesatva]

Sullla said:
Jesus Christ, the idiocy of these two (the Sega PR guy and Pachter) is nothing less than astounding. I want some of the crack that these so-called "analysts" are smokin'. Let's try to take some of these issues one at a time.

• Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has told GamesIndustry.biz that he believes a higher spec, HD-enabled "Wii 2" could be on the shelves "in a couple of years".

Some of the previous posters have already explained this and done a good job of it, but for a quick summary: Nintendo is currently doing about 60% of the "next-gen" console sales, and that's with a severely supply-contrained Wii. In fact, since the PS3 European launch window, the Wii has outsold combined 360 + PS3 sales worldwide every single week. Every week. The sales data shows the Wii as a gigantic, runaway success. So the folks at Nintendo would have to be the biggest idiots imaginable to introduce a new system! Why would they do that? To introduce HD? The market is clearly showing that the average consumer does not care about having an HD console!!! Seriously, it's not that complicated. The gaming industry has been focused on their tiny niche of high-end users for so long, it's gotten completely out of touch with what the average buyer wants.

I can understand a statement like that coming in Fall 2006, but we've got six months of sales data by now emphatically contradicting this logic. Shaking my head here...

• But Pachter did agree with Steinberg that the PS3 "will ultimately come out on top". Victory, he predicted, will be the result of a console price cut to USD 199 and the success of Blu-ray.

*Jaw hanging open*

Looks like Pachter and this Steinberg are passing the stuff around again. Do they read the sales charts?! At all?! Do we even need to discuss this idiocy? I expect this from fanboys on the gamefaqs message boards, not industry analysts in senior positions.

• "Sony is around 6 million units behind Microsoft, and should be able to make up the gap - barely - by 2009 if they price the console correctly. They will likely be 9 million units behind the Wii by the end of this year, so it may take a bit longer to catch Nintendo, likely 2011 or so," Pachter concluded.

 

Pachter seems determined to stick with his initial projections, no matter how much evidence to the contrary the real world offers otherwise. In ordinary situations this is pretty harmless, but it becomes disturbing when individuals are placed in positions of authority and still cling stubbornly to pre-formed opinions. There is this persistent denial in the gaming industry right now, where enormous numbers of gamers and industry execs just seem to want to ignore the facts. I'm looking at the front page of gamespot today, and the headline is "Xbox vs. PS3: Graphics Comparison!" which I'm sure appeals to the small demographic of hardcore technophiles that can discuss the ins and outs of 1080i versus 720p resolutions. But that's only a tiny minority of the consumer market... So much of the discussion focuses on 360 vs. PS3, with the Wii treated like the red-headed stepchild, shoved aside with "it's selling well now, but when ____ game is released the 360/PS3 will dominate" logic. It's as though the market is still being viewed through bifurcated lenses, and the Wii's amazing sales don't even matter (as if casual gamers somehow "don't count" when buying games!) Seriously, just poke around on gaming news websites and you'll see stories like this at least once a week.

I keep wondering when these developers, publishers, and "hardcore" fans who scorn the Wii and anything less than cutting-edge graphics are going to wake up and see the reality of the situation. We're six months in, and little seems to be changing. Maybe it's going to take record losses by Sony, Microsoft, and third-party developers/publishers to change their mindset. I don't want that to happen, but in my mind it looks almost unavoidable as they continue to pursue power for power's sake with out of control expenses.

Bodhesatva said it correctly: The DS hardware keeps selling and selling, the Nintendo software keeps piling up sales, and yet no one is catching on.

Excellent post. Very articulate and backed by substantial evidence. 

One amusing little critique: we're actually 7 months into this console race now, not 6, which actually only strengthens your argument.