Or will it have, by the time GT5 releases?
So first of all lets guesstimate how much Polyphony gets from each copy of GT5:P sold. For a full price game, the developer gets roughly $20. That is 33% of the retail price. GT5:P retails at $40. So 33% would be roughly $13. In Europe it retails at £25. If we use the same percentage, Polyphony get roughly £8 ($16). If we assume that from Japan it is somewhere in the middle, on average Polyphony gets $15 per copy sold. Also remember Polyphony are first party.
Sony reported that GT5:P had sold 2.23M, including downloads (this was a while ago though). That would produce revenue of roughly $33.5M.
Now, GT5:P can't of cost much to develop, because all of the cars and tracks will be used in GT5 anyway. How much do you think GT5 costs to develop? It has beautiful graphics, millions (hundreds) of cars and 50+ tracks. It takes a lot of time to design a car and track for GT5. Although, there isn't as much going on screen, if you compare it to KZ2, MGS4, GTA4. If the rumors are true that MGS4 cost $50M to develop, I am thinking the development cost for GT5 is about $40 - 45M.
Taking revenue of $33.5M and development cost of $40-45M, I would say GT5:P profit has paid for between 60% (conservative) and 75% (optimistic) of GT5 development costs, at the moment. By the time GT5 releases, I would think the development costs of GT5 will just about be covered by the profit of GT5:P.
What do you think?