Isn't MGS4 now supposed to come out this year? I saw the latest trailer and at the end they even had a joke about it.

Gameswise the PS3 is having a much stronger 2nd Christmas than 360 did.

The price point is still key to the sales, I predict in the spring/summer of 08 depending on whether there is a price cut or not by then.

Also really depends on whether MGS 4 and FF XIII come out first half of next year or not, if they do then my prediction is completely off and it will be months sooner. 

To be safe I'll say September 08- 21 months.

The only big games I hear of are resistance(im in high schoo I kno these things dawg)killzone 2, and maybe motor storm ocassionaly, most peeps talk about halo and gears of war thats about it.

Not. Even. Close.

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=XB&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&align=1

I'm predicting the PS3 will hit 10M in it's 26th month, december 2008.

My key assumption is that the price won't be cut by more than $100 before the end of '08 and this will keep sales low even though there will probably be some worthwhile software on it. I'm estimating the sales spikes for nov+dec '07 and '08 will move about 1.65M and 2.1M units respectively.

I predict ww ps3 sales for jul and aug '07 will drop to about 160k units. This one we will find out soon enough. :)

Gears of War would surely have been the largest help in pushing 360 at the end of the year. Along with Dead Rising and Saints Row. Gears of War being the obvious system seller, but the importance of the others (graw/oblivion/dead rising/saints row) is that they provided the 360 something that others didn't have. Those games, along with the PS3/Wii constraints, and lack of powerful immediate launch games available for the PS3/Wii would be what contributed to 360's December. 

The PS3's exclusives this year might be better than the 360's last year (Though I expect it'll be about the same). But when people are shopping for consoles this christmas it's not likely they are going to say "Well, these PS3 games are better than the games Xbox 360 was selling last year". The comparison won't be made to what consoles had to offer last year, it will be to what other consoles are offering NOW. Bioshock and Halo 3 should clearly be able to top anything the PS3 has unless both FFXIII and MGS4 come out this year, in which case it's probably about the same. (I wouldn't count on either of them though, both still just say "2007", and both companies have said they aren't sure but they are positive they will be released before their fiscal year...mar 2008).

I read some of the other games you were talking about but I really doubt that any of them would drive hardware sales. Particularly because most of the ones you mentioned are all late 2007 releases, so since they are more unknown even if they turn out to be phenomenal if they come out late in Q4 they wouldn't have time to built up steam/attention to a wide enough base to become a system seller that year. They should provide solid titles for the PS3, but nothing more than games like Overlord, Two Worlds, Blue Dragon, and a few others should do this year for the 360.

If the Wii still has supply constraints around this christmas the 360 should be far more likely to benefit from it than PS3. It mostly hinges on whether or not FFXIII and MGS4  make it out this year, but since I don't think they will (While the 360 will clearly be getting it's hardware seller in Halo 3). If FFXIII AND MGS4 make it out in time then they MIGHT have a better christmas than the 360, if only 1 of them makes it they are going to lose but still do ok - and honestly, if neither of them makes it out then the 360 should trounce them. Because if neither of them are out, then the best games on the PS3 will be..GTAIV, Assassins Creed, Guitar Hero III - all of which are dual launches with the Xbox 360, that also has Halo 3 and Bioshock exclusives pushing strong sales. With an extra year head start providing them an already stronger library.. ::Shrug::

My guess: 22-24 months from launch. I agree with what most of The Source posted on the first page.

I think this for a couple reasons. First of all, it's selling about the same as the xbox 360 initially did - so you'd think it'd arrive about the same schedule - the difference is the 360 had a head start, it made it's pace after an initial slumber because unique circumstances that won't exist for the PS3.  I don't believe the PS3 will have a big christmas. Also, though Sony touts the number of PS2's sales as it's success, which is true - but I also think it's the failure of the PS3. Every PS2 sold, is someone saying that they are not going to buy a PS3 anytime soon. Now how long it might take them is a matter of opinion - some are probably saying they are never getting one, and some might just be waiting a couple of years. But certainly not many people buying a PS2 will buy a PS3 in the next year because it would immediately be voiding their previous choices.

Now. Like everyone else pointed out, a PS3 price cut in North America (unlikely IMO) this year could help them cut a few months off that time. Something else to look out for though. Even though it's a dual release right now, if GTA IV pushes hardware sales there is always the possibility that since it was more of a Sony game last gen, that people will be more comfortable with buying a playstation and that it will only push PS3 console sales. I think it's more likely that the cheaper 360 with dual release means it would push them about even, but if GTA IV pushes a lot of PS3 and not many 360 - it could give PS3 a much better Q4 this year than I'm expecting.

 Just have to point out that 19 months is 1 year and 7 months.  12 months in a year, not 11.

Anyways, I have a feeling that with some anticipated titles coming out later this year and holiday season that it will hit the 10 million mark at 14 months.  

Dec07/Jan 08

it would not hurt to get MGS out in 07.

I would be severely impressed with Sony if they could move over 6 million systems between now and January.