After this year it will probably only need to sell 20 million or less for 4 years after. It will probably sell really well next year too so the ammount/year will be even less after 2009.

The fact that the PS2 still sells is irrelevant. The Wii too might still be selling many years from now.

What we do know is that the Wii is selling considerably faster than the PS2.

WOW....people are living in such denial

the Wii isn't suddenly gonna stop selling!!

Looking at market trends, 2007 was the peak year for the DS. This is significant in that most systems peak in their third year (PS2's best year was 2002, for example), whereas 2007 was the DS' fourth year. Also significant is that it's slowing down at a much more reasonable pace than most systems do. Like the PS2, which took 3 years before it really started seeing hardware sales drop by large quantities (2007 was not a banner year for the system), we will probably see something roughly like this for the DS:

2004: ~2,750,000
2005: ~11,000,000
2006: ~21,000,000
2007: ~29,000,000
2008: ~25,000,000
2009: ~20,000,000
2010: ~15,000,000
2011: ~10,000,000
2012: ~5,000,000
2013 onwards: under 5,000,000 cumulative, but close to it

For an overall number of units sold being somewhere around 140 million.

The Wii is far harder to predict, since it's only in its third year, and is experiencing such severe shortages that there's no way to even guess what its 2009 sales will be like. Until supply can meet demand effectively, we won't know the point when demand will peak.

I don't think the Wii will, but following consoles might as the market in India and China develop

You're kidding me, right? Nintendo practically started the trend of bundles this generation. It kind of makes your argument go down the drain...

I doubt the wii will sustain strong sales without good third-party support.

There's a long-standing myth that third-party sales are central to a system's survival, but this simply is not true. The myth originated largely from when Sony entered the market, and persists largely because Sony was the most successful console maker during the last decade. But if you look back to before the PlayStation, you'll discover that third parties were never significant in years prior to Sony's console debut. The NES million sellers list consists almost entirely of Nintendo-made games, and you'd be hard-pressed to find any third-party game makers who sold more than 2 million copies of a game on the system. The situation is similar, but not as pronounced, with the Super Nintendo.

The fact of the matter is that most consumers don't give a flying fig about who makes a game as long as it fits their interests. The game could come from Nintendo, Activision, Electronic Arts, Rockstar, or even People Can Fly, and they still wouldn't care as long as the game gave them what they were looking for. Strong first-party support is no more a handicap for Nintendo than strong third-party support is the 360's saving grace. The software itself, not who makes it, is what drives a system (be it into the stratosphere or into the ground).

The Wii and the DS are both on track to outsell the PS2, hardware-wise and software-wise.



Montana, I think Fernando meant the Wii hasn't had multiple bundles. It's been the same since launch, 1 controller and Wii Sports. Both HD consoles have had a shitload of official bundles, while the Wii only gets forced crappy unofficial bundles at retail.

M8, the Wii will beat the PS2.

Easily.

The PS2's record year sold 21 mill. With 7 mills sold already in 2008, the Wii is on track to sell at least 25 mill this year. And they haven't even upped the production yet...