MGS2 LTD WW > MGS3 LTD WW but I brought up MGS3 because we don't have complete launch data for MGS2. You are correct about the PS2 userbase at MGS2 launch being close to the current PS3 userbase. VGC has it around 15 million. However that had 6 million PS2s in Japan where it launched at 470k. MGS4 will launch with a Japanese base well under 2.5 million. The MGS series consistently launched well in Japan (350, 470, 500) but MGS4 probably will do much worse. You're probably not going to have a local 25% attach rate week 1 so it'll require Others and NA to pick up more of the slack to sell a million in week 1 (which they could do theoretically especially since with strong demand for the 80gig SKU).

I'll take that bet. What should the terms be? Sig bragging?

I think it is possible that it will sell more than a million the first week but then the game has to be really good and the game get released in a good period.

It really depends on the marketing from Sony, considering it should sell at the most about 50k in Japan, that means that between NA and Europe it has to sell 950k first week, possible, but not probable IMO, though I'd love to be wrong.

Worldwide, yes.

I think Sony will really hype up the 60 player online part and that will help to drag in all the my d*** is bigger than yours online shooter fanatics and it will be able to get a million, especially with it being released at the holidays.

Why cant it? i dont see how its not going to seel that much. by that time the ps3 will be around 8 million in america, wow do you people have faith in anything? it seems everyone is negative on this site.( especially the wii fanboys)

 700,000 but with very long legs because of the release date. 4.5 million lifetime.

 I'd say November is as good as it gets. It all comes down to quality and fortunately this is Insomniac games we're talking about.

I think it's possible, but not necessarily probable. It will be a holiday release, to a vastly expanded userbase so it has the potential.

no. 500k max 1st week.