Will Resistance 2 sell 1 million in week 1?

[azrm2k]

bbsin said:

 

Flawed argument, MGS2 sold much more than MGS3 with a smaller install base, if anything the PS2's install base at the time was probably around the same as the PS3s at this time. Not to mention MGS4 will have virtually no competition. I will make a bet with anyone that doesn't think MGS4 will sell more than 1 million units during it's first week on a world wide basis.

OnT: and yes, I think the install base and marketing for the PS3/R2 will be enough to get to 1 million WW.

MGS2 LTD WW > MGS3 LTD WW but I brought up MGS3 because we don't have complete launch data for MGS2. You are correct about the PS2 userbase at MGS2 launch being close to the current PS3 userbase. VGC has it around 15 million. However that had 6 million PS2s in Japan where it launched at 470k. MGS4 will launch with a Japanese base well under 2.5 million. The MGS series consistently launched well in Japan (350, 470, 500) but MGS4 probably will do much worse. You're probably not going to have a local 25% attach rate week 1 so it'll require Others and NA to pick up more of the slack to sell a million in week 1 (which they could do theoretically especially since with strong demand for the 80gig SKU).

I'll take that bet. What should the terms be? Sig bragging?