Sales will drop to something most likely like pre-GTA4 level +20% until MGS4 comes out when PS3 sales will spike again....

@Shameless.

I think it was pretty safe to project that notion even months ago but with the Wii outselling both combined during GTAIV launch week, it's all but cemented in stone. Barring something absolutely impossible to predict, Wii will lead in sales going into the next generation.

I'm sure nintendo must've stocked up hard to get this week's number though. I wouldn't be surprise if the wii only gets 300k WW sales next week. There is no way Nintendo can consistantly pump out 700kish wii's weekly. I wouldn't be surprise if PS3 outsells Wii in hardware next week.

IMO we'll see another week or two of fairly elevated sales (but less than this week).  Especially in Europe with the GTAIV bundle.

However, I think the ps3 is going to stay at a higher sales rate than before for a few reasons other than GTAIV.

1.  MGS4 and its bundle will sell some more consoles and keep sales elevated somewhat until July. (and have already sold some consoles).  It's arrogant to think that MGS4 will ONLY sell consoles when and after its released.  It has been selling consoles since it was first announced and shown.  That's how console pushers truly work.  You can't look at its opening week and say that it only sold 50,000 consoles so it was a failure.  That's dumb thinking.  Console pushers SLIGHTLY raise console sales from their announcement on. 

I bought a ps3 for Final Fantasy XIII.  It's not going to be released for a long time, but it's still the reason I bought a ps3.  I just chose to get it now and enjoy it while I wait.  So if it only sells an extra 25,000 consoles when it launches, that doensn't mean those are the only people to buy a ps3 solely because of FFXIII.  Understand?

2.  Tax Returns, $600 Tax Credit, and Graduation Money are all starting to come out.  I'm a coach and some of my seniors are talking about buying a ps3/360 once they have their graduation money (Great way to plan for their future with the gifts!)

3.  Re-introduction of the 80GB model.  I think this will sell a lot of consoles in America.  A lot of people I know want backwards compatibility and the added features of the 80GB.

4.  Other good games on the horizon.  No matter how you argue it, the ps3 has only seen one major exclusive.  Gran Turismo 5: Prologue....and it's a "demo."  All other games, other than Ratchet & Clank (which doesn't appeal to many hardcore gamers) have been new UNPROVEN IP's (Resistance, Heavenly Sword, Lair, Uncharted, Warhawk, etc.)  That is about to change.  MGS4 will be the first AAA exclusive for the ps3.  It's the moment of truth for ps3 console pushers.  We'll finally find out if good software will sell well and push hardware.  The other games were simply appetizers...now it's time for the main course.

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Xbox 360 will have increased sales because of GTAIV until Mid-May---June or so....maybe a slight bump for NGII (but I don't see it as a major console pusher....it usually doesn't even sell that much software).  I expect a price cut to combat the ps3 over the summer.

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Wii----Continued DOMINANCE, duh.....

I think they'll drop of some, but will get a permanent 20% boost or so depending on the region (s).

Nintendo announced they'll up shipments to 2.1 million per month until august, then they'll ship 2.4 million per month.
2.4 million per month is 550k per week on average.

So yeah, they stocked, but not that much.

OT: Of course sales will drop, GTA is the biggest game for both consoles this entire gen. But both consoles should see elevated sales levels for at least a month.

In the weeks and months that are leading up to the release of a big game (like Grand Theft Auto 4) a lot of people are buying the system (in part) in anticipation for the release of this game; when the game is released these sales are transformed into people buying a system because of the game. Over time the number of people who are buying a system to play a particular game drops at a fairly steady rate, and to maintain the sales rate new games have to be released at a steady pace to replace these 'lost' sales with new 'anticipation based' sales.

Hypothetically speaking, if you released several really large games and had little for people to look forward to in the medium or long term you could see (somewhat rapidly) declining sales for the system over time.

I think they will both sustain a bit higher sales than they had before GTAIV. Especially with the big releases coming up for both consoles.

PS3/360 will be each be under 480k/month worldwide again by August while Wii will continue to sell ~260k+/week worldwide.