I think sometime by this fall they will reach 50% but loose it by christmas just to gain it again sometime in 09

If supply wasn't an issue, it would already have done so.

That said, the longer supply is an issue, the more unlikely it is as it will fall further behind. If it doesn't happen in Q1 09 or sooner, it's never going to happen. With the increased production, it might be able to make it, but we have to start seeing the results of that increased production regularly having the wii outsell the combined PS3+360... It does it when Nintendo releases enough wiis in NA, but they don't do that every week.

The Wii is causing more disruption than a black muslim in the KKK at the moment so its very hard to tell, there are sales spikes here there and everywhere.

I think if it does happen at all it will near the end of this gen and it would have to be consistantly outselling XBOX and PS3 by a large margin, im not saying it wont happen but i think its highly unlikely.

In order to that to happen. Nintendo needs a series of games that will definatelty make the Wii the consile of choice... Right now is still far away from that goal, since many third party developers aren't putting that effort

Supply will be the deciding factor. If Nintendo can supply enough, it will happen.

Of course this won't happen, just look at all the big PS3/360 releases. They'll increase hardware sales so much that the Wii won't be able to keep up with their combined sales.

* Looks at the front page * Oh wait...

I don't think it will, perhaps it could shoot past momentarily but I don't think it would last too long tbh. This is a very different and odd generation of consoles and we cannot expect the market leader to dominate like the PS2 did and use historic data to extrapolate lifetime sales.
History, it seems, does not apply to this gen!

 Most of us hope history would not repeat last generation. PS2 with around 70% market share was far from a competitive environment, innovation was lacking last generation with weak competition in Microsoft and Nintendo.

 By end of this generation I expect Nintendo Wii to finish on  45% market share.  PS3 on 30% and XBox 360 on 25% market shares.

Well it all depends on waht long-time effect will TA4 and MGS4 will have and if we will see a pricecut for either the PS3 or 360 this year . If the PS3 will go down to 300$ than it will be pretty damn close to the Wiis pricetag ...

I have my expectations in my sig, but I have to admit, since I had made it, there had been a really long spell where the Wii just didn't increase its percentage at all. It wasn't until just recently that it started moving again.

Keep in mind, while PS3 sales are indeed increasing, it also seems to have the effect of cutting into the 360 sales rate.