Pokopia was underestimated from day 1 honestly.

It combines two things the Switch audience goes nuts for; Pokemon and cosy/life sim games, I've been saying since the reveal that it had huge potential due to bridging these two massive audiences.

Pokopia has a damn good chance of being a top 10 seller on Switch 2 over its lifetime given its incredible launch and what seems to be great word of mouth in its favor. Well deserved.

2,2M sell through in 4 days is massive, Yotei on PS5 reached 3,3M sell through during its first month, Pokopia will easily surpass that figure on an install base of less than 20M during its first month. Which shows the massive lifetime sales potential for Pokopia. I think western sales will see the biggest glow up because hype was there day 1 for Pokopia in Japan, while sales in the west will all be driven by word of mouth.

1m in Japan is a crazy ratio, very unexpected

If it picks up like Animal Crossing did it can even be in the top 5 by the end of the NS2 life, Animal Crossing sales are insane.

It's quite shocking honestly. Much better debut than I was anticipating simply because the install base is too small for this kind of launch. More than Mario Kart World and without a bundle!

Overseas it did about what I was expecting ~1 million, while in Japan it quite easily doubled my prediction lol 

I was expecting 10~12 million seller based on reviews and a 1 million launch 

Since it doubled the opening weekend sales I will no longer be surprised it sells in 20~25 million range 

For what its worth this is pretty much bang on the money with Nintendo's own predictions of physical sales, which is what you were actually making comparisons from. But still a good reminder that the digital market means a lot of opening numbers in Japan are a fair bit higher when we mentally record. Though I doubt ZA was as digitally driven. Would love to see where Pokopia sits next to ZA when accounting for digital. Probably equal to or slightly higher than ZAs Switch 2 launch which well beyond anything I would of expected.  

Very hard to say how much it'll sell, it's both Pokémon themed and Animal.Crossing alike, it has potential to linger on selling well for the entire generation, but how much I really can't project. I think it depends on how both the Pokémon fans and Animal Crossing fans will behave once (for Pokémon) or if (for Animal Crossing) new entries on those franchises release.

I think it should be hitting 20M too, but it has potential to go even further. I dunno if it'll still be as relevant once proper Pokémon games hits with gen 10, 11 and remakes, that can definitely split the attention from the Pokémon crowd leaving mostly the Animal Crossing crowd lingering on, but if there is not a new Animal Crossing coming over soon, I can see it rivaling mainline Pokémon sales, as both franchise are huge as are their player base.