Prob around 40mill,60 till 80mill if pc is included.

40 seems too low given that GTA 5 was 34 million first year console only and general trend from the release of 4 to 5.  My safe bet is 70 million. 

GTA V had 2 very active consoles to sell into, GTA VI will only have 1.

GTA VI is also going to cost way more than V, which was a $60 game, GTA VI will be $80 at the very least, $90 IMO.

It's going to be huge, but it does have a worse market condition than V had.

It's going to be a decade plus of strong lasting sales, like V, but I don't expect the first year to be vastly different, much less double its sales.

Do you really expect 55M PS5 and 15M XBS users to buy it on its first year at full price?

Once it hits PC, it gets discounts and eventually has a 10th gen version, it'll reach 100M sales and beyond, but anything over 40M for a full year should not be expected, IMO.

Yes, I totally expect GTA 6 to destroy expectations and records.  Thats kinda the arena I am operating in. 

You are setting yourself for a big dissapointment then.

GTA V managed around a 20% lifetime attach ratio for the PS3 and 360 within one year, now you expect it to be around 50% attach ratio for the PS5 and XBS in one year, with things being as expensive as they are, and with XBS users basically only investing in Gamepass and not new game purchases.

That just won't happen, there is no way half of the people that have ever owned those systems are getting it with 1 year from release.

For example, I'm very likely not to get it so soon myself. And I'm huge spender compared to most people out there.

And I was there day one for GTA V. It was vastly more affordable during that time.

It's going to be huge, but if it doesn't release on PC day one 70M is completely impossible, much less a safe bet.

You're stretching the definition of impossible. The game may be able to hit 70 million with a November 2027 PC release, although I think it's the upper limit. RDR2 sold 17 million in two weeks across PS4 and Xbox One. GTA6 on PC should beat that in November + December. It can easily add 20+ million to console versions' totals by year's end.

Animal Crossing sold 31 million in like 9 months on a single plarform. Current GTA is on a whole other level, so doubling its performance is obviously not out of the question. Anything from 40 to 75 million is on the cards. Reception, price, and PC release date will determine the outcome.

One mistake everyone is once again making is the assumption that GTA5's lifetime sales are "sort of the limit", when for all we know GTA6 may eventually make GTA5's numbers look timid lol, but it can also fall far behind. A lot will ride on gamer (not critical) reception. It's not clear how much of the existing 200 million+ players are willing to get the game in year 1. When GTA5 launched on PS360, it outsold GTA4's totals in the blink of an eye. At that time everyone would have deemed GTA5 selling a 100 million+ lifetime foolish and comical! Though to be fair, we didn't think it would last 2 whole generations without a successor!

GTA 6 is not confirmed to be on PC by 2027 end as of now.

There are not even close to 200M players between PS5 and XBS, even if we consider the platform totals as every single one of those sales still being an active player, we would have around 135M between PS5 and XBS by the time GTA 6 comes around. GTA 5 had around 160M between PS3 and 360 when it came out.

Also, both the PS3 and 360 were succesful consoles, meanwhile the XBS is basically a Gamepass machine nowdays, so like 70% of it depends on the PS5 userbase. PS5 will be a hard carry for it now, not an even split.

There is no single way it sells 70M without a day one PC release later this year.

The thing is not understimating GTA 6, is reaching actual limits based on population available on that enryronment.

Animal Crossing was a pandemic release on everyone was locked inside their homes and it drove games sales insanely high, to the point massive layoffs came after because the demand would take years to get on that level again. Also, Nintendo games can have insane attach rates real quick, look at Mario Kart World, it's like 80% attach rate.

GTA 6 launch will be insane, and its legs are probably going to be the most impressive thing, just like GTA 5, but where are those double people buying it on year 1 coming from, as it doesn't even have a PC release confirmed until now?

GTA 6 is not confirmed to be on PC by 2027 end as of now.

There are not even close to 200M players between PS5 and XBS, even if we consider the platform totals as every single one of those sales still being an active player, we would have around 135M between PS5 and XBS by the time GTA 6 comes around. GTA 5 had around 160M between PS3 and 360 when it came out.

Also, both the PS3 and 360 were succesful consoles, meanwhile the XBS is basically a Gamepass machine nowdays, so like 70% of it depends on the PS5 userbase. PS5 will be a hard carry for it now, not an even split.

There is no single way it sells 70M without a day one PC release later this year.

The thing is not understimating GTA 6, is reaching actual limits based on population available on that enryronment.

Animal Crossing was a pandemic release on everyone was locked inside their homes and it drove games sales insanely high, to the point massive layoffs came after because the demand would take years to get on that level again. Also, Nintendo games can have insane attach rates real quick, look at Mario Kart World, it's like 80% attach rate.

GTA 6 launch will be insane, and its legs are probably going to be the most impressive thing, just like GTA 5, but where are those double people buying it on year 1 coming from, as it doesn't even have a PC release confirmed until now?

The PC version is releasing sooner or later. Whether it comes out within a year or more is anyone's guess. I think it's coming within a year from the console release, and I don't even rule out a day 1 release. Anything is possible.

Selling only 40 million would require it to at most sell 20 million this November + December, and 5 million a quarter next year including the holiday season. To put things into perspective, 5 million copies per quarter is GTA5's current rate. Do you expect GTA6 to dip below GTA5's post 200 million sales curve?

I'd love to know your quarterly sales expectations from November 2026 til the end of 2027, with and without the assumption of a PC version releasing in November 2027.