I think most of the people who'd buy a console for it already have one by this point but we can wait and see how it goes. I doubt it but perhaps it will pull a Switch 2 and absolutely shatter records.

Are they basically planning to only play GTA on the PS5?

Maybe Rockstar should have launched on PC and charged $600 for the game instead.

Based on what?  Of the potential hundreds of millions of future sales, how are you able to determine that anyone who wanted to play it on PS5 already own a PS5.  I see people thinking that Tomodachi Life will boost the sales of Switch 1 but somehow all potential sales for the PS5 via the biggest media release of all time are already nullified.

Based on the fact that the PS5 will already be at about 100m by November so will be fairly saturated sales wise by then. GTA 6 got announced a bit over two years ago so loads of the people who got a PS5 since then will be intending to play it on there. Some people will have gotten one in 2024 expecting to it to have been out last year after all. If GTA 6 had somehow come out back in say 2021 and there wasn't any stock issues I imagine it could've caused a few million boost to the month it released but the boost will of course be way smaller with it releasing so late in the lifespan.

Also the idea that the upcoming Tomodachi Life game is gonna cause a notable boost to Switch 1 sales is just cope from people latching on to any speck of hope left that could still make it reaching 160m somehow remain possible. It's gonna have a miniscule impact since the Switch is super old and any sales boost that does happen will almost entirely go to the Switch 2. Expecting GTA 6 to boost PS5 sales several million in November-December this year isn't as unreasonable as that idea but both are wrong in my view.

They are likely to just use PS5 as a decoration piece, maybe play some games coming early to PS5, or just give it to the childrens. 

Switch 2, is the "fresh" system out there.
PS5 would get some games, but we don't know exactly how will it turn out finally.

IS PS5 manages to increase its sales year on year during its sixth year on the market (In an already pretty terrible console industry), that would be the first time something like that happened since Pokemon boosted Gameboy to new heights during its original launch. Its not entirely impossible but something that rarely happens. In a normal scenario, PS5 will decline this year compared to 2025 while Switch 2 should sell a bit more in its second year than during its launch year. But Switch 2 is becoming more dependant on Japan as things stand, if it manages 5M sales in Japan this year it would take a collapse of Switch 2 sales in NA and Europe compared to PS5 to make PS5 sell more WW.

People forget stuff like the Mario movie inevitably increasing mindshare for Nintendo products in markets like Europe this year, and Pokemon gen 10 will also increase mindshare for all things Nintendo not just in Japan but in many markets WW. If Sony releases games like Spiderman and God of War they get a boost in sales, so it doesn't make sense to think Nintendo doesn't get a boost in sales from a new Pokemon generation, given its a bigger gaming IP than anything Sony first party.

Some people are really underestimating GTA 6, some really overestimating it as well.

For once, I don't think 2026 will top 2025, but remain relatively flat with 17.1M PS5s sold.

But also, GTA 6 is going to be huge, as I said some time ago, a friend's husband got a PS5 Pro last year, despite them already having a PS5, literally only for the sake of GTA 6 (which was not delayed by then), so even people with limited money, and that already had a PS5 to begin with, got another one, the most expensive version no less, just because of that one single game.