VideoGameAccountant said:
9 million is probably about right. I did some back of the napkin math. Famitsu had the Switch 2 selling 2.1 million through the end of September. At its current level, its about 240K shipped over sold. They make up about 23% of shipments, so if you take the 240, divide it by 23%, you get about 1 million shipped globally over sold. I think its actual sales are between 8.5-9M since Japan has still been a competitive market for Switch 2 where its going down in others (as seen by it being down MoM in Sept in the US). It does seem like Nintendo pushed the Pokemon Z-A bundles into this quarter. Current management seems more interested in making the numbers look good than they did in the early Switch days. They also didn't have sell through numbers despite having it in their previous report and other reports, so my guess is the good numbers here have a lot to do with shipments. We'll have to see if this is going to be a big holiday item. Hard to say with the K-shaped economy and everything selling faster but worse (coughMonsterHunterWildscough) The one number they will not hit is their software target. They only have an attach rate of about 2 but Switch was closer to 3.5 in Q3 2017. Not to mention that 8 million of that 20 million are bundle titles. 45 million was already going to be tough but 49 aint happening. Regardless of how the hardware dose, I think it's going to have the same issue as the PS5 where software sales aren't great. |
I think DK Bananza sales disproves this a bit, for it to already have sold 3,5M copies with an attach rate of over 30 % is very impressive in the current industry, Sony did not reach those sales for Astro Bot on a 70M+ user base. I think sales for Nintendo first party games will be very good during the Switch 2 generation, their IP remains very popular. I mean DK Bananaza reached in full game sales on a low install base sales numbers which Xbox multiplatform games like Indiana Jones and Doom didn't even achieve on player count metrics by including gamepass players.
These are the kind of sales numbers which shows why Nintendo does not need to go multiplatform any time soon, because they can sell exclusive games on a low install base and still make those games profitable after 3 months on the market.
