| trunkswd said: Machina adjusted our Switch 2 and Switch 1 estimates up a little bit following this earnings report. Switch 2: 9.24m -> 9.30m Switch 1: 151.93m -> 152.06m |
9 million is probably about right.
I did some back of the napkin math. Famitsu had the Switch 2 selling 2.1 million through the end of September. At its current level, its about 240K shipped over sold. They make up about 23% of shipments, so if you take the 240, divide it by 23%, you get about 1 million shipped globally over sold. I think its actual sales are between 8.5-9M since Japan has still been a competitive market for Switch 2 where its going down in others (as seen by it being down MoM in Sept in the US). It does seem like Nintendo pushed the Pokemon Z-A bundles into this quarter. Current management seems more interested in making the numbers look good than they did in the early Switch days. They also didn't have sell through numbers despite having it in their previous report and other reports, so my guess is the good numbers here have a lot to do with shipments. We'll have to see if this is going to be a big holiday item. Hard to say with the K-shaped economy and everything selling faster but worse (coughMonsterHunterWildscough)
The one number they will not hit is their software target. They only have an attach rate of about 2 but Switch was closer to 3.5 in Q3 2017. Not to mention that 8 million of that 20 million are bundle titles. 45 million was already going to be tough but 49 aint happening. Regardless of how the hardware dose, I think it's going to have the same issue as the PS5 where software sales aren't great.
Last edited by VideoGameAccountant - on 04 November 2025
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