The Galaxy games due to a way bigger userbase, as others have commented, are the safe choice here.

1.3 million for Ghosts first day. Up from 1.25 million for GoT. I highly doubt Galaxy 1+2 pulled that but who knows, Nintendo will never release the numbers so it's a complete guessing game. There seems to be no buzz about it while Ghost is all over legacy media and social media. 

Ghost was almost guaranteed to have a much bigger launch than the port. What’ll be interesting is to see how well Mario performs during the holidays.

Yeah but will we? Do they ever drop numbers from Estore sales?

Oh, it's got a film to boost it. This changes things indeed but to get to 70+ million like MK8... nah, that's a tad ridiculous to think, it's not a party game. 

This is extremely difficult to gauge. The Sony userbase matches that of Nintendo, it's just many are stuck on the ps4 and that will change with GTA6, the PS5 is 3 years younger than Switch and it's hard to say what will happen with PS6 and Ghosts sales, if there will be a free upgrade or some small fee as opposed to Switch 2 where people may double dip down the line. Yet Sony may put Ghost on Extra at some point which would severely fuck it's chance at sales. I'm intrigued to see how this plays out now, esspecially to see what boost SMG 1+2 gets with the film release. 

In 6 months before it was delisted Mario 3D All Stars sold 9 million. I think the Galaxy games will do just as good in the first 6 months and have good long term sales. It took Ghost of Tsushima 2 years to get over 9 million with steep discounts and a Director's Cut re-release. While this is a beloved franchise we need to remember this is Mario lol.

Nintendo releases all sales figures for first-party releases that receive 1mil shipments in any given fiscal year. This includes eShop sales. Now, whether Sony ends up revealing GoY figures is a different question. AFAIA we still don’t even know the sales figures of Tsushima, only player numbers.

I meant it more in the way that this port could be outselling it's original release in a pretty significant way. But then again I guess that goes for most Wii U ports on Switch.

I literally told you a couple of pages ago that Tsushima sold over 13 million as of September 2024. These aren't player numbers!

Otherwise yeah, the way Sony reveals their sales figures is random these days. GT7 is looking to pass 15 million. And yet it doesn't look like Sony intends to announce anything outside cumulative franchise sales. Insomniac's leaked data revealed surprisingly high sales figures from Bloodborne and Ratchet and Clank, and yet Sony acts like Bloodborne doesn't exist. Weird mf's.