lol i just quoted you so i could see the list

1. I'll agree with average, maybe 1 million

2. Fable 2 will do great, 2 million

3. Too Human = meh...750k

4. GeoW2 - Super mega hit - 5.5-6 million

5. Banjo Kazooie 3 - Decent...900k-1mil

6. Fallout 3 = FLOP!...500k tops

NG2 only 1 million? Numbers aren't available for the NG1+NGB on xbox, but it has to be close to 2 million. I would put the over/under at 1.5 million for NG2. Only 1 million would be a disappointment for me.

People should just wait until Fallout 3 is released before passing judgment on it.  I remember when Metroid Prime was getting ripped to shreds by fans of that series before it was released.

Gears of War 2 will sell 8 million lifetime
Fable 2 3 million
Fallout 3 1.8 million
Ninja Gaiden 2 1.5 million
Too Human and Banjo 1 million

@rocketpig

Remember who you are talking to. One of the few posters that is not impressed by Oblivion in the least. I also freely confess that I never played the games in the series the concept for the game put me off. Post Apocalyptic is so eighties. Basically I have no intention of buying this game unless it is something really spectacular. I freely confess I was more interested in Borderlands.

The truth still stands if you like the series you better hope this title is successful even if you do not play it, because in most series you will eventually get a game that returns to its roots, but it must be a proven commodity to have that opportunity. Perhaps in five or even ten years sensibilities will allow the game to have terribly dark humor.

After the fiasco that was Manhunt 2 your going to see games pulling it back for a few years. Every time someone waxes nostalgic about this series one of the first things they say is killing babies. Do you actually expect a game that lets you do that to get anything less then an Adults only rating? Not in our three dimensional gaming worlds. No manufacturer is allowing Adults only games on their consoles. A number of retailers refuse to sell them. Then you have the public backlash and potential boycotts.

I suppose killing the series is like giving up the fight. Are you self righteous that you never want to see a game like Fallout ever again. You just need patience you are bound to get a true interpretation in the series at some future date, but if the series is dead that cannot happen.

 I agree.  Cept i don't think Fallout 3 will flop.  Should it flop?  Maybe, haven't had a chance to play fallout yet, but from what I've seen.... it was better then the oblivion model.   Of course i liked Wasteland better then the oblivion model.  I like my RPGs turnbased.

DMeisterJ you should have put some of the more random/unknown titles coming out this year, seems to biased towards high profile "hits". Anyway...:

Ninja Gaiden - Hit

Fable 2 - Average/Hit

Too Human - Average

Banjo Kazooie 3 - Hit/Average depending on how closely they stick with the formula

Gears 2 - HIT

Fallout 3 - Average/Hit: Though I trust Bethesda as a developer, I'm not sure people (especially the older core market) will appreciate the new direction the Fallout series is heading in (I never played the last 2, so I'm actually pretty excited by the game).

@MorgZ: Considering that the original Gears was the best selling 360 game before the release of Halo 3, I reckon Gears 2 can only go higher. The larger install base also helps.