yes i do know that and thats exactly why i think NG2 will fall short of peoples expectations.  I think NG2 will be somewhere in the mid to high 80s on metacritic.  I think it will post around NGS .

Too Human and Banjo Kazooie 3 might have only ok sales, but I expect the rest to do well.

couldn't agree more.

EPIC FAIL!!!!

Banjo Kazooie 3 will not flop.

The most likely flop on the list is Too Human (from a sales perspective anyway).  It is also possible, but unlikely, that Fallout 3 will flop.

Gears of War 2 will sell monstrous numbers.  Fable 2 will sell just under monstrous numbers.  Banjo Kazooie 3 will sell very good numbers and NG2 will do ok. 

I think they're all going to do well.

The notion that such things can be said without a particular frame of reference is patently absurd. You need to say what you mean by flop or not. What a flop is to everyone is far different. A flop on the 360 may not be the same as a flop on the PS3 or the Wii. For many posters the sales rate varies from console to console. I would say all these titles are guaranteed to sell half a million easily. Technically that will not be a financial flop. Anything beyond four hundred thousand on the console is essentially gravy. A twenty percent profit over development cost is never a flop.

However for arguments sake I will take the harsh critics position. While none of them are likely to be financial flops. I would concede there is such a thing as a hype flop. I would consider sales of less then a million on these titles and less then half a million in the first four weeks a hype flop. The title not matching hype is a good metric for a fun discussion on the topic. Like another poster said even average titles on the 360 seem to easily manage half a million in sale.

Ninja Gaiden II Flop

I do not like the release date for the title. The summer is so very hard on games, and while it will be popular the purchases will be delayed. Better legs due to the time of year, but it will be a poor sprinter. Will probably not make it past half a million in the first month, but will be near a million by the end of the year.

Fable 2 Not

This title will probably hit in September or October a very good time of year. Beyond that the whimsical nature will have wild appeal. The first title had very good sales, and you have real name recognition. This title really has the potential to sell over three million copies this year. There is just too much devious fun to be had.

Too Human Flop

Barring a masterful advertising campaign from Microsoft this title will only find traction through word of mouth. Which means it probably will not sell half a million in its first month on the market. This title will probably have very robust legs however. The ignorance about this title isn't going to build the hype it needs for a stratospheric launch. Neither will it help that it will probably be too close to Fable 2

Banjo Kazooie 3 Not

This title will hit the market in November most likely. Can a highly anticipated title flop in November. That just isn't very likely. The series has already sold over five million copies on previous systems, and beyond that whether you dislike Rare or wish them ill. They have not been performing poorly in the quality department. They have averaged 8.4 per title on the 360. That is almost on par with how they performed on the 64. So lets not insinuate that the developer is shitty they are not.

Gears of War 2

Will probably hit in November, and once again its damn near impossible to flop in that month for a highly anticipated title. Black Friday is your friend, and even if this game received mediocre marks it would easily sell over two million on reputation alone. You cannot argue with five million in sales for one game on the same platform the sequel will arrive on. Well you could argue, but you would seem very stupid for doing so.

Fallout 3 Not

This title arrives in the fall, and its the heir apparent to Oblivion. Then it has an established license. This title has a lot going for it, and its hard to see it failing to sell less then half a million in the first month. Oblivion did that on a much smaller user base. How can it fail even theoretically. There is too much going for it.

1.- Average
2.- Hit
3.- Flop
4.- Flop, too "kiddie" for a "hardcore" userbase
5.- Big Hit
6.- Hit

flop
hit
flop
hit
flop
hit