Technologically the Wiimote wouldn’t be possible in the format we got it. But for the sake of the hypothetical, let’s say it was - I think the Wii would have done quite well, probably similar to what the 7th gen Wii ended up doing.
It would attract more third parties, because of the horse power, however ultimately PS2 (and to a lesser extend Xbox) would still be the place for the core gamer experiences, by having conventional controllers, and not having the image of party consolles. Now PS2 did have a casual appeal, I think it would do slightly worse there, Guitar Hero’s primary (or exclusive) console would be the Wii. I almost think the most interesting is what would happen with Sing Star? Would Sony double down on it to challenge Nintendo in a war for the casual market? Would the Wii have a competing IP that would be a success?

While the 6th gen would be a great success for Nintendo, the 7th would be a disaster instead, with Nintendo failing to realise the casuals moving on from the Wii. The technology of the Wii U gamepad is not there by 2006-2007, so they release a Wii 2 instead with HD capabilities, dvd playback, Wii motion plus and now also a conventional controller packed in, as they want a larger bite of the core gaming market. The console is weaker than the Xbox 360 and PS3, but more expensive than the 360, as you are paying for two controllers, it loses out on 3rd party support and sells about 20-25 million units. By 2012 they release something similar to the Switch, but the technology isn’t quite there yet, so it underperforms a bit as the titles aren’t AAA standards, it sells 70 million units. Enough to inspire them to make a stronger system in 2018, stronger than the one we got. People’s jaws drop when they see stuff like Breath of the Wild and Mario Odyssey (which look even better than what we got) on a portable system. After that we are more or less back in the timeline we got.

I don't think it takes off because I don't think the gaming world at that time would have accepted it. When the Dreamcast launched in 1999, the parents of that generation's young people still believed that video games were for either young kids or were a complete waste of time. Gaming was not something you did once you grew up and got a life. So had Nintendo launched with a system aimed for them, they would have likely turned a deaf ear. And as for the Dreamcast/PS2 generation of gamers, well... if it was Nintendo, it was immature and kiddy. And if it was immature and kiddy, they weren't buying it (see sales of Gamecube for proof of this), so I just don't think the Wii would have worked out.

Yeah for the purposes of this exercise, let's assume that the motion tech is the same; I'm pretty sure accelerometers and IR were a thing in 2001.

Motion controls were cheap already. The 'if' is the little camera in the wii mote that tracks the 'sensor' bar. (Which is just two IR lights, one at each end) Digital cameras were still quite new at the time, The 1024x768 IR camera in the Wii mote does the tracking and outputs the position of detected IR lights. 

November 2000 saw the first phone with digital camera

https://www.mobilephonemuseum.com/phone-detail/j-phone-j-sh04



We consider the J-Phone J-SH04, which was manufactured by Sharp, to be the world's first cellular-enabled camera phone. It featured a 110,000-pixel (0.11 megapixel) CMOS imaging sensor (camera).

It made 352 x 288 resolution (256 color) pictures. It seems unlikely the Wii Mote could have been released in 2001 with sufficient camera resolution for IR tracking capabilities.


Motion tech yep, digital camera tech with onboard image processing, likely not. At least not at an affordable cost.

For the purposes of this hypothetical scenario, let's cheat a little and assume that if not necessarily the same technology, some similar solution is in place to enable a pointer, or some substitute.

IMHO, Sony would still pulverize Nintendo with PS2. Maybe PS2 would have a smaller lead? Maybe only 5:1 in favor of Playstation?

PS2 - 140M
Wii - 80M
XB - 20M

Wii expands the console gaming sector a gen earlier with it's appeal to casuals and atypical non gamers, so overall 6th gen console sales end up considerably higher. XB and PS2 lose some sales to Nin. Wii is still a hit, but not quite the big hit it ended up being in 7th gen because PS2 is just too much of a juggernaut.

Don't think people understand that if the Wii sells even 80 million, it probably definitely gets GTA3, MGS2, and a lot of those PS2 games.

3rd parties would not be able to ignore a hardware platform that effectively had better graphics capablity than the PS2 plus a massive userbase and would weasel out of exclusivity contracts and/or not even bother signing them with Sony unless Sony was literally going to reimburse them for millions of copies of lost sales.

Even things like Final Fantasy 12 go the Wii quite possibly. Effectively I think the situation would be virtually all 3rd party games are basically multi-plat and generally look a bit better on the Wii as well. 

I don't think the PS2 hits 140 million either.

I think it would be more like

PS2 - 100 million (about the same as PS1)
Wii - 85 million
XBox - 22 million

Sony's ability to get 3rd party exclusives was largely predicated on having no clear 2nd competitor in the market, if the Wii was even 50% of PS2 sales, a lot of 3rd parties would not be able to ignore a platform that large and the potential loss of sales revenue by not having a version of their top games there as well. 

No GTA San Andreas, MGS2/3, Devil May Cry, Kingdom Hearts as exclusive = no 150 mill for PS2. 

I did personally take into account that Wii would get more 3rd party games. I should've added that, as it was part of why I thought it would sell 80M, coming off of N64's 33M.

I also took into account the casuals and non gamers view of the Wii and it's motion tech. These people thought this was like stolen Area 51 alien tech, that was also being sold for pennies on the dollar, and that was in late 2006. Now just imagine 5 years earlier alongside PS2 in 2000/2001. Everyone's minds would've been absolutely melted, when it comes to the motion tech anyway.

Everyone would've noticed things that gen like how tiny the Wii console was compared to the PS2 and XB. They also would've obviously seen a major difference in the fact that PS2 and XB had rather typical looking controllers vs the Wii-mote and nun-chuck.

The reason why I think PS2 still ends up selling so well is the momentum SNY had due to PS1, which cannot be understated. The other is the DVD player. I know a lot of people who used the PS2 a considerable amount to play DVD movies, and for some of them it was solely for DVD movies, early on anyway when exclusive DVD players were far more expensive.

I also think the Wii in 6th gen definitely increases total overall 6th gen console sales. The Wii had the ability to get extreme casuals and non gamers to pick one up and enter (console) gaming. There's no doubt that you would get some PS2 (and XB) owners also buying a Wii that gen. I think because of this, my sales number breakdown would've been relatively accurate.

*I would also mention, Wii in 2001 for $249 seems way too good to be true from Nin. Even with GCN range hardware, the motion tech would've made it $299 min, probably higher. Which would also help explain why PS2 ends up still doing so well.

Considering Nintendo prototyped Wii Motion controls on Gamecube to start with...
https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2018/10/japanese-auction-reveals-nintendos-first-wii-remote-for-the-gamecube/

And considering the Wii basicaly had the same internals as the Gamecube anyway... With some enhancements...
https://www.copetti.org/writings/consoles/wii/

And considering some Gamecube games have been "broken down" and discovered to have been tested with "motion controls" on the Gamecube like the prototype of Metroid Prime 3: Corruption included debug options that featured motion control functionality

The issue isn't so much a question of "Can the Wii release a generation earlier" - It literally could have from a hardware perspective.
The issue was software, it just wasn't ready.

Nintendo could have release motion controls as a literal accessory of the Gamecube.