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Forums - Gaming - Hilarious wrong predictions

Anyways… on the topic of not having much official data on Switch 2’s holiday performance, I see no point in continuing this discussion. Let’s pick things up in February once Nintendo (yet again) reaffirms that Switch 2 hasn’t hit this fabled “The Cliff 2: Electric Boogaloo.”



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firebush03 said:
LegitHyperbole said:

:) Not a chance. 40 at best. Again, I'll have to make a prediction (a correct one), it'll slow even more than it slowed for the holiday season. Let's talk again in a year and see those numbers contract steadily. 😉

Don’t even need to wait a year, just look at the quarterly results in early February 2026. Switch 2 will almost certainly be at 16.5-20mil shipped by that point.

Also, IDK why you’re acting like your prediction has already come true… why are you saying these things? JP and EU sales data suggest Switch 2 is on pace to dramatically outperform Switch 1 during its first holiday quarter (Q3FY18), and that system moved nearly 8mil in its first holiday. Only territory where Switch 2 has lagged a little would be the US specifically during the month of November.

If S2 was gonna sell to casuals it would have beaten PS5. Anyway, this is the Hilariously wrong predictions thread, I wanna be wrong. You'll most likely be right but it doesn't mean there is gonna be a big contraction and the November sales are a big sign of that. I don't think it'll contract as much as Wii U but it's not pulling a 3ds. 



firebush03 said:

Anyways… on the topic of not having much official data on Switch 2’s holiday performance, I see no point in continuing this discussion. Let’s pick things up in February once Nintendo (yet again) reaffirms that Switch 2 hasn’t hit this fabled “The Cliff 2: Electric Boogaloo.”

The Cliff will come ;) it just gonna be a slippery slope type deal. 



If I end up like that other guy, let the meme be that I predicted the Switch 2 will slide down a 45 degree angle into ruin. Infact let it be said that all gaming hardware is gonna slide down a slope in the near future. Sony can't keep eating cost forever or go back in time and place hardware in warehouses omve it's sold. 



LegitHyperbole said:
firebush03 said:

What’s not looking likely now? My claim that NS2 will hit 60mil is the absolute worst case? This system is already looking at a 17-21mil FY’26, a new record by a country mile. Maybe the chip shortage could create some complications, but 60mil would still basically be the floor.

:) Not a chance. 40 at best. Again, I'll have to make a prediction (a correct one), it'll slow even more than it slowed for the holiday season. Let's talk again in a year and see those numbers contract steadily. 😉

Again, that base 10 million was a guarantee. The casuals aren't gonna follow the hard-core. 

Get your mind out of 2008 with bullshit like this. If anyone is "hard core" it's not you. You are as casual as it gets playing the most mainstream stuff. "hard core" would be people who have PCB collections. Entire expensive setups for flight sims. People who can play Ikaruga 2 player at the same time. Ftr none of those things are me either. 



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

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Leynos said:
LegitHyperbole said:

:) Not a chance. 40 at best. Again, I'll have to make a prediction (a correct one), it'll slow even more than it slowed for the holiday season. Let's talk again in a year and see those numbers contract steadily. 😉

Again, that base 10 million was a guarantee. The casuals aren't gonna follow the hard-core. 

Get your mind out of 2008 with bullshit like this. If anyone is "hard core" it's not you. You are as casual as it gets playing the most mainstream stuff. "hard core" would be people who have PCB collections. Entire expensive setups for flight sims. People who can play Ikaruga 2 player at the same time. Ftr none of those things are me either. 

I never said I was hard-core. I said the hard-core Nintendo base are the ones slurrping up the Switch, that number of users has grown since Wii U but it'll top out. Many core will follow, that's why I'm saying 40 million and a slow road there, not a harsh cut off like Wii U, they lost the casuals and the kids but like I said, all consoles are gonna decline cause of hardware costs in the near to mid term. Hard-core in this context does not mean hard-core gaming but if beating Sekiro in 4 hours on a fresh save and booting it for perfect boss runs is not hard-core idk what is. Don't gate keep. There are hard-core out there but can't game cause of circumstance. I'll throw the same back at you and say, take your head out of 2008 with that shit. So grumpy and it only January 2nd. 



Wind Waker and Twilight were guaranteed coming to the Switch by a few here for about 7 years straight.



“Consoles are great… if you like paying extra for features PCs had in 2005.”
LegitHyperbole said:
firebush03 said:

What’s not looking likely now? My claim that NS2 will hit 60mil is the absolute worst case? This system is already looking at a 17-21mil FY’26, a new record by a country mile. Maybe the chip shortage could create some complications, but 60mil would still basically be the floor.

:) Not a chance. 40 at best. Again, I'll have to make a prediction (a correct one), it'll slow even more than it slowed for the holiday season. Let's talk again in a year and see those numbers contract steadily. 😉

Again, that base 10 million was a guarantee. The casuals aren't gonna follow the hard-core. Nintendo's fickle base is to reliable. 

Lol!! 7.01mil in Q3FY26. I was perfectly correct in my 6.5-8.5mil projection and in my claim that FY is looking to be within the range of 17-21mil. Nintendo literally raised their fiscal projections.

Don’t be so smug next time. This was an extremely predictable outcome.



More big-brain takes going on in this thread.



curl-6 said:

I'll start: in 2009, Michael Pachter predicted that the Wii/PS3/360 generation would be the "last generation of consoles."

“I think we’ve seen the last generation of consoles. [Third party publishers] are not going to support a PS4 or Xbox 720,” he said. “The content is not going to change in any meaningful ways because the publishers can’t afford it.”

I sort of agree about the content not going to change in any meaningful way. PS5 and Xbox Series X had huge amounts of extra CPU performance but most of the games still run on PS4 and Xbox One models it seems when they were commercially viable because they upgraded the graphics but the game engines themselves didn't really evolve that much to include new more advanced physics engines or better AI generally. The rise of Android and IOS as gaming platforms and the need for scalability seemed to mean they didn't want to push CPU demands. It feels like only a tiny minority of games really push CPU performance to its limits. I guess this bodes well for Switch 2. The main improvement we have got from more CPU performance seems to be gaming at 60fps or even 120fps and that still allows for 30fps games on weaker platforms. PC sales have been collapsing it seems worldwide with the hyper inflation in RAM and NAND pricing so people aren't upgrading their PCs as often so it would be a foolish developer who pushed CPU requirements for new games on PC too much creating only a niche of people that could run the game properly on their PCs. I'm sure there will be some future games requiring very high CPU performance like Grand Theft Auto 6. I can see the PS5 being the minimum entry point for that game but a poor version compared to a state of the art PC or maybe a PS6.