Which is strange since tie-ratio is the smallest in Japan, it's probably the worst market to recover mone with software sales compared to US and Europe. It's also the market where their option is uncontested and they run a monopoly, so it's likely the one the have the smallest chance to see a significant decresse compared to Switch 1

Switch 1 will probably only pass DS in the last quarter of this year

ShadowLink93 said: Super Mario Party Jamboree was the best selling game of Q4 Nintendo's earnings release for the 4th quarter of the fiscal year ending March 31st 2025 has been published, this covers the three month period from January 1st to March 31st 2025. Nintendo shipped 1.26 million units of Switch hardware and 31.43 million units of Switch software bringing lifetime totals to 152.12 million for hardware and 1391.23 million for software. Year over year quarter 4 hardware sales are 0.70 million down from 1.96 million and software sales are 4.29 million down from 35.72 million. Two titles sold over one million units this quarter, these were Super Mario Party Jamboree (1.31 million) and the new release Donkey Kong Country Returns HD (1.27 million). Unfortunately the other New Release Xenoblade Chronicles X Definitive Edition failed to ship one million units. For the Nintendo Switch platform, Nintendo are forecasting 4.5 million units of hardware and 105 million units of software for the fiscal year ending March 31st, 2026. For the Nintendo Switch 2 platform, Nintendo are forecasting 15 million units of hardware and 45 million units of software for the fiscal year ending March 31st, 2026. Hardware Switch Hardware Q4: 1.26m Regional Split Q4: Japan 380k, Americas 490k, Europe 200k, Other 190k Model Variants Q4: Standard 260k, Lite 210k, Oled 790k Switch Hardware Total: 152.12m Regional Split Total: Japan 37.20m, Americas 58.31m, Europe 39.20m, Other 17.41m Model Variants Total: Standard 96.44m, Lite 25.48m, Oled 30.20m Global Shipment History (millions) Software Switch Software Q4: 31.43m Regional Split Q4: Japan 6.32m, Americas 13.97m, Europe 8.83m, Other 2.32m Tie Ratio Q4: 24.94 Switch Software Total: 1391.23m Regional Split Total: Japan 273.12m, Americas 605.03m, Europe 404.72m, Other 108.35m Tie Ratio Total: 9.15 Global Shipment History (millions) Software Top 10 Total sales followed by the previous total then sales added to the total in Q4 Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 68.20m (67.35m) + 850k Animal Crossing New Horizons: 47.82m (47.44m) + 380k Super Smash Bros Ultimate: 36.24m (35.88m) + 360k Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild: 32.81m (32.62m) + 190k Super Mario Odyssey: 29.28m (29.04m) + 240k Pokémon Scarlet/Violet: 26.79m (26.38m) + 410k Pokémon Sword/Shield: 26.72m (26.60m) + 120k Legend of Zelda Tears of the Kingdom: 21.73m (21.55m) + 180k Super Mario Party: 21.16m (21.10m) + 60k New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe: 18.25m (18.06m) + 190k New Release Donkey Kong Country Returns HD 1.27m New! Others Nintendo Switch Sports: 16.27m (15.74m) + 530k Super Mario Bro's Wonder: 16.03m (15.551m) + 520k Mario Party Superstars: 14.00m (12.89m) + 1.11m Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 Super Mario Party Jamboree: 7.48m (6.17m) + 1.31m Legend of Zelda - Echoes of Wisdom: 4.09m (3.91m) + 180k Paper Mario TTYD: 2.10m (2.06m) +40K Mario & Luigi Brothership: 1.97m (1.84m) +130k Luigi's Mansion 2 HD: 1.88m (1.80m) + 80k Million Sellers not updated this quarter (1st party published) Ring Fit Adventure: 15.38m Pokémon Let's Go: 15.07m Pokémon BD/SP: 15.06m Pokemon Legends Arceus: 15.00m Luigi's Mansion 3: 14.25m Splatoon 2: 13.60m Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury: 13.47m Splatoon 3: 11.96m Super Mario 3D All-Stars: 9.07m Super Mario Maker 2: 8.42m Kirby and the Forgotten Land: 7.52m Legend of Zelda Link's Awakening: 6.63m Clubhouse Games: 4.64m Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze: 4.62m Mario Tennis Aces: 4.50m Kirby Star Allies: 4.38m Legend of Zelda Skyward Sword HD: 4.15m Fire Emblem Three Houses: 4.12m Hyrule Warriors Age of Calamity: 4.00m 1-2 Switch: 3.74m Pikmin 4: 3.48m Paper Mario Origami King: 3.47m Yoshi's Crafted World: 3.35m Super Mario RPG: 3.31m Metroid Dread: 3.07m New Pokémon Snap!: 2.74m Xenoblade Chronicles 2: 2.74m Arms: 2.72m Mario Strikers Battle League: 2.63m Mario Golf Super Rush: 2.48m Pikmin 3 Deluxe: 2.40m Captain Toad Treasure Tracker: 2.35m Octopath Traveller: 2.08m Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle: 2.00m Pokémon Mystery Dungeon DX: 1.99m Big Brain Academy Brain vs Brain: 1.94m Xenoblade Chronicles Definitive Edition: 1.91m Xenoblade Chronicles 3: 1.91m Kirby's Return to Dream Land Deluxe: 1.82m Miitopia: 1.79m Mario Kart Live Home Circuit: 1.73m Fire Emblem Engage: 1.68m Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: 1.60m Pokkén Tournament DX: 1.54m Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 01 Variety Kit: 1.42m Metroid Prime Remastered: 1.36m Wario Ware Get it Together!: 1.34m Astral Chain: 1.33m Dr Kawashima's Brain training: 1.27m Bayonetta: 1.24m Bayonetta 2: 1.23m Princess Peach Showtime! 1.22m Game Builder Garage: 1.15m Mario Versus Donkey Kong: 1.12m Bayonetta 3: 1.09m Fire Emblem Warriors Three Hopes: 1.00m Nintendo Switch hardware shipments compared to some other platforms (millions of units)

I'm just wondering where you got the numbers for Link's Awakening (you have it listed as 6.63 when I can only find 6.46) and Pokemon Legends Arceus (you have it at 15 when I can only find 14.83). 

The Switch has really slowed down but passing the DS this year should still happen.

As mentioned in the other thread Mario Kart has near 50% attach rate that means almost 1 in two Switch owners has purchased the game even more mad is that it had around 50% attach rate on WiiU as well I can't think of any game that achieved that on two separate platforms.

Switch is also less than 2m from becoming the all time second best selling platform of all time and it's going to pull that off in the coming months, so far the only FY where Switch sold less than 10m was the one where it was on sale for only one month.

I think that too. We shouldn't forget that Nintendo has had bad forecasts in both directions: too optimistic and too pessimistic. They have a track reckord of lowballing after they failed with highballing.

They're not forecasting a "death" at all at this stage. Your assertion was that Switch would be "dead and buried" by next FY; there's no indication of that yet, production could continue at low levels for years yet, as happens with many systems.

I said it "should basically be dead and buried by then" not that they would ship literally 0 units. Yes they will ship low levels until at least March 2028 I expect. It will just be low enough in numbers that it "should basically be dead and buried" by the fiscal year ending March 31st 2027.

And yes Nintendo are forecasting a faster death in terms of sales volume than the 3DS. Faster drop = faster death. I'm not saying a faster taking off the market here when I say "death" I'm talking amount of sales.

A modest quarter with the Switch missing its revised down hardware forecast. The forecast for this fiscal year is more conservative than I expected but the Switch 2 will likely beat it and 4.5m for the Switch 1 is unsurprisingly a huge drop and shows that a late price cut won't be happening in the end and a final revision probably isn't either so Nintendo wants people to move to the Switch 2 ASAP so that cliff did happen in the end, it just took much, much longer than a lot of people were expecting and 160m is probably the ceiling for it at this point.

The Switch 2 is gonna have a better first year than the Switch as expected though it might not be by a lot but it's still gonna be one of the fastest selling consoles ever initially. If it beats the forecast significantly that'll be due to initial demand getting boosted over concerns of it increasing in price down the line.

Also something notable is the annual playing users declined YoY for the first time ever so the amount of people no longer using their Switch or having sold it is currently exceeding the amount of new people joining the ecosystem so a huge task for the Switch 2 will be to not only stop that decline but resume growth which will be easy enough at first but extremely hard to do long term considering how much the Switch has sold though it'll remain very high of course. Overall things are looking strong for Nintendo though the tariffs do make things less fortunate than they should be.

Again not necessarily, a bigger initial drop doesn't guarantee the actual death will come sooner. It could, but it's too soon to say for sure at this stage, especially with how chaotic the industry and world at currently. I just think you're jumping the gun with the whole "dead and buried by next March" thing, particularly as we know significant software support will continue into 2026.

"Dead and buried" isn't a technical term, so perhaps I'm just misconstruing what exactly you mean.