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Zippy6 on 08 May 2025
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curl-6 said:
Zippy6 said:

Nintendo aren't forecasting that to happen though. 3DS shipped 6.4m in the year ending March 31st 2018. GBA shipped 8.33m year ending March 31st 2006. Switch is forecast for 4.5m in the year ending March 31st 2026 and for 3 of those months it's the current system. Unlike the 3DS in which the Switch was out for all of those 12 months, and the GBA which the DS was already out, and for a longer time in Japan.

3DS only dropped 12% YoY with the Switch launch, not the 58% YoY drop forecast here. Nintendo are forecasting a much faster death for the Switch than those two systems.

The price difference was much bigger for 3DS (2DS was $80 by 2016, basically a quarter of the Switch price) and it had the advantage of Switch not being BC either.

They're not forecasting a "death" at all at this stage. Your assertion was that Switch would be "dead and buried" by next FY; there's no indication of that yet, production could continue at low levels for years yet, as happens with many systems.

I said it "should basically be dead and buried by then" not that they would ship literally 0 units. Yes they will ship low levels until at least March 2028 I expect. It will just be low enough in numbers that it "should basically be dead and buried" by the fiscal year ending March 31st 2027.

And yes Nintendo are forecasting a faster death in terms of sales volume than the 3DS. Faster drop = faster death. I'm not saying a faster taking off the market here when I say "death" I'm talking amount of sales.

Last edited by Zippy6 - on 08 May 2025