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Zippy6 on 08 May 2025
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curl-6 said:
Zippy6 said:

So Switch 1 shipments forecast to drop by almost 60% YoY. 156.62m by March 31st 2026. 160m is going to be very tough to get if they don't beat that forecast. They'd need the drop in the next fiscal year to be less than that and Switch 1 should basically be dead and buried by then.

Not necessarily; systems like the 3DS and GBA continued to be produced and supported for years after their replacement, the same could happen with Switch 1. It already has a number of games slated for 2026 including first party titles like Rhythm Heaven Groove and Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream.

Switch 2's $450 price point leaves room for an entry level device like the $200 Lite to persist for some time.

Nintendo aren't forecasting that to happen though. 3DS shipped 6.4m in the year ending March 31st 2018. GBA shipped 8.33m year ending March 31st 2006. Switch is forecast for 4.5m in the year ending March 31st 2026 and for 3 of those months it's the current system. Unlike the 3DS in which the Switch was out for all of those 12 months, and the GBA which the DS was already out, and for a longer time in Japan.

3DS only dropped 12% YoY with the Switch launch, not the 58% YoY drop forecast here. Nintendo are forecasting a much faster death for the Switch than those two systems.

The price difference was much bigger for 3DS (2DS was $80 by 2016, basically a quarter of the Switch price) and it had the advantage of Switch not being BC either.

Last edited by Zippy6 - on 08 May 2025