To address the argument that "Some people will be content with Switch 1 and may not feel as amazed to upgrade to Switch 2" being the reason why Switch 2 will sell worse, you also need to look at the other side of things as well. Past 8 years we've seen plenty of new kids born into this world who weren't born or too young to get onto Switch 1, so even if we see some Switch 1 users not return for Switch 2, the new generation of kids getting their first Gane console will make up for it, this has happened in some way with every direct successor in the console space. Nintendo has also expanded quite a bit to the "other" regions that weren't as into Nintendo when Switch 1 first came out in 2017 and will continue to expand as stuff like Nintendo movies release and Nintendo continues to market to those other regions like they've been doing the past several years. Switch 2 could also be looked at more as a 3rd party system as it's 3rd party support is looking much better than Switch 1, which could appeal to even more people.

This why I'm doubting Switch 2 will sell under 130 Million like many are saying, it's the sequel to the bestselling console ever, just like with the PS2, who wouldn't wanna buy it, it's a console everybody loves but better

The biggest reason is the Switch 2 shouldn't get a big boost in the middle of its life due to the world getting shut down for a while. Another reason is while I do think most people are overestimating the impact the pricing will still hurt some cause it's safe to say that there's not gonna be quite as many parents buying multiple for each kid in a given household this time. There's also the current major uncertainty with the US market cause if the huge tariffs on Vietnam get resumed in July then the Switch 2 is gonna be become a lot more expensive there.

It'll still sell very well though of course with it most likely becoming the 4th best selling console of all time even if the PS5 gets there first. The launch seemingly being huge is a good sign though even flop consoles can have a fine launch so how it's selling by September will be more telling. Also to correct something the 3DS was less due to smartphones and more due to the hardware not being appealing especially for its launch price and it having a poor lineup for like half a year. An awful start like that is hard to recover from.

I've been thinking for a while that VR would be perfect for a new WarioWare game to feel truly fresh. They will be able to do something with the mouse functionality for one game but after that I dunno what they could do that wouldn't just be a repeat like Move It.

Yes , a VR standalone not really  but if Sony was smart they would cut a deal with Nintendo to bring those IP and any other IP that would suit VR  to PSVR2 and  would go so far to co produce with Nintendo a PSVR2  switch 2 version.

Nintendo would have a situation like the PSVR where it doesn't go on to sell all that much.
Like PSVR2 is currently at like 2,5m or something small like that.
I don't see why nintendo would have more success with it, than others, esp if its a stand alone, released along sides their Switch.

Because Quest 2 sold around 20 million - without Mario and Zelda. I see folks massively keep underestimating how much reasonably priced VR headset with descent enough specs, that is (and this is THE key feature) standalone can succeed and Quest 2 proved it.

And Nintendo can just put SW2 SoC (which is somewhat above Quest 3's SoC) inside reasonably priced VR headset with descent enough specs and have something that is new Wii.

I voted 100.1 / 125 million.

My Quest 3 is sitting here collecting dust for over a year now. It was nice when I got it and all and there are still games I want to try. But honestly, most of the time it is just too much hassle for me to actually put that thing on and the battery life doesn't help either. In demanding games it doesn't even last one hour and I don't want to wear a giant power bank while playing VR. 

VR is cool and all, but I'm pretty certain it will stay a niche and as such isn't the market Nintendo is aiming for.

Sure Quest 2 sold 20m, but how much would it have sold if it didn't allow you to do non-gaming activities, and couldn't use it on PC? Quest 2 also has the advantage of being an open platform. Considering the lackluster media support on Switch, Nintendo would have to take a very different approach to VR.

Plus Nintendo would have to spend resources adding VR support to their games, or preferable making games specifically designed for VR, when those resources could just be spent on Switch 2 instead.

A VR Headset using the same SoC as the Switch 2 would cost more than a Switch 2 to make. They'd be selling that thing for over $499.

I'm really not sold on the idea that a Nintendo VR headset would do well. 

I feel it will exceed 130 milion units.

https://apnews.com/article/nintendo-switch-2-preorders-sold-out-aa7971ae98395eff63f54c43a8cdb101

https://www.reddit.com/r/NintendoSwitch2/comments/1k555ed/interview_with_french_retailer_fnac_about_switch/

Maybe it's collecting dust because there are not enough games that can go head to head to what's been offered on non VR platforms you game on, and everyone's time is limited?

Can you envision Nintendo VR having the same problem with all Nintendo IPs on that platform?

Quest 2 sold that much cause it was cheap and good enough for what it does, which is VR gaming, without additional device and cables.

Quest 3S currently costs $269 (it launched for $299) - it uses display and lenses of Quest 2, but same SoC as Quest 3, and that SoC is probably more expensive than T239, given it's on Samsung's 4nm node. Even counting in Nintendo's "it must make profit" pricing, I don't see their VR console being too expensive in few years, when I expect it to launch - it's untapped market, and they very much like that, especially when ocean becomes more red due to everyone else launching their own handhelds.