I believe my last prediction was 30-330 million, based on the information known.

I'm adjusting that to 60 million to 200 million. Because with that presentation (I liked what I saw, and I think most Switch owners will eventually want to play that), I think the minimum number of Switch owners that will upgrade is about 37.5%, and if few others buy, that's the disaster level. So I'm adding 30 million to the bottom end. On the flip side, I don't think the new features have the possibility of adding any more than 25%/40 million users onto a vast majority of returning Switch 1 users (and any dropouts could easily be offset by kids who grew up and now want their own machine, and being alone with University grants/loans/union jobs, have a lot of spare cash to do it before starting a family and losing the roommates/starting a family), so I'm taking off 130 million from the top. While I can see some wild directions with the mouse that could lead Switch 2 into whole new niches not covered effectively by Switch 1, and I'm thinking Switch 1 sales + wiggle room to account for new players remains a possibility. With the more probably number being somewhere in the middle of that and 60-70 million and 180-200 million probably having about a 1% chance - so, highly unlikely but not out of the realm of possibility, and anything beyond these would be a crazy shocker, like 1 in 1000 or less. Because I have no idea if Mario Kart World is going to be as big of a killer app as Mario Kart 8DX. But, personally, I was quite impressed with what I saw about the game. It was a big step in the direction I wanted to see. It's reminiscent of Diddy Kong Racing meets Beetle Adventure Racing, both were popular concepts on the N64... but, to be fair, the games have been moving toward Diddy Kong Racing style since Mario Kart Wii.

The Donkey Kong game looks quite promising. But I don't see it as a Breath of the Wild level game... so far. It is heavily reminiscent of Super Mario Galaxy, and I think this will sell consoles for the people that recognize that. Super Mario Galaxy 1/2 are, IMO, the best platformers to this date. And if it does some of the SMG2 design, where it is primarily a free roaming game that flips to sidescroller during various parts while maintaining its 3D graphics. I also like doing the DK before Mario order... BUT, I hope they fill the gap with more than just Odyssey Switch 2 Edition, maybe Galaxy 1 and 2 Switch 2 Editions, and Galaxy 1 and 2 HD rereleased on Switch.

So, mid-2026 to holidays 2026, I think it'll be far more clear where things are going after we see what sort of games start exploding on Switch 2, and if the fire of Switch 1 continues. But I think the real next big adjustment comes in 2027 when Switch 2 handheld edition or Switch 2 TV likely get announced and released.

So, 60 million is the new ultimate disaster level line, while 200 million is the new ultimate triumph level. I don't think it will be outside that margin.

The hybrid value proposition is the same or better than the original.

3rd party offerings are better with CoD alone.

Online appears to be better.

Gamecube is meh but Wii and DS are next in line.

140m-200m+

I think sales will end up closer to the Switch 1 than not, in the 130-140M range. We know that most Switch users are adults with solid income so slightly higher prices are not going to ruin anything. And the price of the japanese model hopefully means they have some room to drop hardware price elsewhere if they need to.

Would have been good to have 3D Mario in the launch year but it won't matter too much in the long run.

At this point I'm quite bearish on the Switch 2.  I'm going to say 50-75m.

When I first watched the Direct, I was giving the presentation a 6.5/10.  The first party offerings in the presentation were weaker than I expected, but the third party offerings were actually better than I expected.  However, after finding out about the pricing of everything my score dropped to 3/10.  I also think Nintendo customers are more sensitive to price than Playstation customers.  A lot of parents are going to look at that Switch 2 price tag during the holidays and get their kid a Switch Lite instead.

I don't think of Mario Kart as a killer app.  I think of it as everybody's second favorite Nintendo game.  The big killer apps for the Switch were BotW, SSBU and AC:New Horizons.  People bought the system for Zelda and then bought Mario Kart, or they bought the system for SSBU and then they bought Mario Kart.  Mario Kart 8 is so popular that it will likely outsell Wii Sports eventually (with Wii U + Switch sales).  However, it couldn't save the Wii U.  It's not really a killer app.  It doesn't sell hardware in proportion to its software sales.

I think Switch 2 will sell well this year and then struggle after that.  Then they'll either have to cut the price (like 3DS) or end it's lifespan early (like Wii U and Gamecube).

Nintendo Switch sold an average of ~19m a year over 8 years. Switch 2 should manage ~15m average over 8 years based on the higher prices.

That means it shall sell ~120m.

It all comes down to games in reality, Nintendo just has to deliver like they did in the last 8 years.

Very early to make much of an accurate prediction. The thing could sell 80 million units or over 150 million.

That's about 116.5 million units, slightly falling short of PS4 and Game Boy+Game Boy Color. 

My more pessimistic total is barely cracking 100 million units, and my very pessimistic is falling just short of GBA around 80 million units. 

I realistically don't see it selling any more than 125 million units. 

I was debating between 100-125m of 125-150m. I chose 100-125m, I think Switch 2 will see a drop in sales since it won't have the covid lock down advantage, I also feel like it is a bit more pricey and considering how incomes haven't kept up with inflation these past few years, it's gonna be a tougher ask to have people especially in poorer regions buy the Switch 2 and its games. I also think there will be some people who will be content with the Switch 1 being their main hybrid option and won't feel the need to upgrade just cause of better performance, and in 2025 the concept of the Switch isn't fresh and new anymore for people to get as excited to buy it. Still think it'll be a major success overall but hard to replicate the Switch 1's success

I am going for 150 to 175, basically it will follow the same pattern as its predecessor and its lifetime will be long enough to do so.

If the games were priced at $70, then I’d be saying >140mil. But, Nintendo wants some extra money, so I’m now saying 110-125mil. The moms-and-dads of this world are not gonna look at $90 for Kirby and MarioKart with too much excitement…it’s a bold ask. (Unless the rest of the industry follows in their steps, in which case that’ll just be the norm, and they’ll just see it as a consequence of “generalized inflation.”)

125 million

This will be a NES to SNES situation. There will be a decline but not as bad as many people think. The price is a problem indeed, but it will most likely be corrected over time.