NSW2 Lifetime Sales

[The_Liquid_Laser]

At this point I'm quite bearish on the Switch 2.  I'm going to say 50-75m.

When I first watched the Direct, I was giving the presentation a 6.5/10.  The first party offerings in the presentation were weaker than I expected, but the third party offerings were actually better than I expected.  However, after finding out about the pricing of everything my score dropped to 3/10.  I also think Nintendo customers are more sensitive to price than Playstation customers.  A lot of parents are going to look at that Switch 2 price tag during the holidays and get their kid a Switch Lite instead.

I don't think of Mario Kart as a killer app.  I think of it as everybody's second favorite Nintendo game.  The big killer apps for the Switch were BotW, SSBU and AC:New Horizons.  People bought the system for Zelda and then bought Mario Kart, or they bought the system for SSBU and then they bought Mario Kart.  Mario Kart 8 is so popular that it will likely outsell Wii Sports eventually (with Wii U + Switch sales).  However, it couldn't save the Wii U.  It's not really a killer app.  It doesn't sell hardware in proportion to its software sales.

I think Switch 2 will sell well this year and then struggle after that.  Then they'll either have to cut the price (like 3DS) or end it's lifespan early (like Wii U and Gamecube).