javi741 said:
Mobile gaming will never cut into the Switch 2's market. |
Everything cuts into everything when it comes to entertainment and free time.
Lifetime hardware sales for Switch 2? | |||
| Under 25 million | 1 | 0.81% | |
| 25.1 - 50 million | 1 | 0.81% | |
| 50.1 - 75 million | 7 | 5.65% | |
| 75.1 - 100 million | 22 | 17.74% | |
| 100.1 - 125 million | 49 | 39.52% | |
| 125.1 - 150 million | 27 | 21.77% | |
| 150.1 - 175 million | 13 | 10.48% | |
| 175.1 - 200 million | 1 | 0.81% | |
| 200.1 - 250 million | 1 | 0.81% | |
| Over 250 million | 2 | 1.61% | |
| Total: | 124 | ||
javi741 said:
Mobile gaming will never cut into the Switch 2's market. |
Everything cuts into everything when it comes to entertainment and free time.
Yeah PC handhelds are too niche to have any significant impact on Switch 2; they appeal to the most hardcore enthusiasts, the kind of person who either wouldn't buy a Switch 2 anyway, or who would probably get one in addition to their ROG Ally or Steam Deck.
Switch also has a very different value proposition to phone gaming, people aren't going to opt against getting a Switch 2 just cos they can play candy crush on their phone, if they did Switch 1 wouldn't have been so successful.


130-140M, final answer.
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| firebush03 said: “Over 250mil†is a rather bold prediction lol. I wonder who those two voters are? |
Hope it's not tbone, otherwise we're all massively underestimating the system ;)
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| javi741 said: https://youtu.be/HzNC2WUN2Bs |
Anecdotally speaking, I had to go to 5 stores (almost all in my county that carry Switch 2) recently to even get a Switch 2. It was a Sunday, but still. I think the truth lies in the middle. Plenty of days and areas you can find a Switch 2 in the first store you walk into and some days they're out of stock in most stores in a 10-25 mile radius.
Switch 2 I think is still the fastest-selling console ever. Almost no way it sells below 100 million and even if the hype is slowing down it will invariably get a lot higher again as more games release.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)
PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)
Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)
PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)
3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)
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| curl-6 said: Yeah PC handhelds are too niche to have any significant impact on Switch 2; they appeal to the most hardcore enthusiasts, the kind of person who either wouldn't buy a Switch 2 anyway, or who would probably get one in addition to their ROG Ally or Steam Deck. |
PC "handhelds" are not the only one's that will try to make that blue ocean more red.
As for phones - well, they've already shattered once dedicated handheld market - honestly, from my POV, I don't see Switch, PC and future XBOX/PS dedicated "handhelds" as classic handhelds - given their dimensions and weight, it's more sensible to call them portables. Handhelds, as they once were, as in devices you can carry around in your pocket, currently live in smartphones.
And yes, currently, bar the time you spend playing in each category, there is not that much overlap between mobile and dedicated gaming portables market, apart from small collection of titles that are available on both and mobile titles that are aiming to be full-blown console gaming experiences...but for some reason, I have this itch that says that this will all change in next XYZ years.


I'll go for somewhere around Wii levels. 90-105 million.

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HoloDust said:
PC "handhelds" are not the only one's that will try to make that blue ocean more red. As for phones - well, they've already shattered once dedicated handheld market - honestly, from my POV, I don't see Switch, PC and future XBOX/PS dedicated "handhelds" as classic handhelds - given their dimensions and weight, it's more sensible to call them portables. Handhelds, as they once were, as in devices you can carry around in your pocket, currently live in smartphones. |
Phones and hybrids are quite different niches; around the time Switch 1 came out a lot of people predicted that the prevalence of phone gaming would limit its sales as a portable device, yet it still went on to become one of the highest selling systems of all time.
I don't see any reason that would change this time around, attempts to bring console type gaming to phones have failed miserably, the audiences are after two very different things.
curl-6 said:
Phones and hybrids are quite different niches; around the time Switch 1 came out a lot of people predicted that the prevalence of phone gaming would limit its sales as a portable device, yet it still went on to become one of the highest selling systems of all time. I don't see any reason that would change this time around, attempts to bring console type gaming to phones have failed miserably, the audiences are after two very different things. |
Sure, they are different...and there will always be fair amount of separation. Yet, I think that the overlap will become bigger as time goes on. Whether it's through MS pushing for Windows on ARM, VALVE being more aggressive with SteamOS, or via streaming (have you tried GeForce NOW lately? - it's actually mind blowing that you can play even with mouse+kb comfortably, let alone with gamepad). Especially this last one - there is point in future where for a lot (if not most) people it is just more convenient to have their libraries be accessible from any device, even if at home they have their main device they prefer to play on.
This is not just Switch related, and might not even influence NS2 for better part of its lifecycle, but it's coming, for all, whether we like it or not.
HoloDust said:
Sure, they are different...and there will always be fair amount of separation. Yet, I think that the overlap will become bigger as time goes on. Whether it's through MS pushing for Windows on ARM, VALVE being more aggressive with SteamOS, or via streaming (have you tried GeForce NOW lately? - it's actually mind blowing that you can play even with mouse+kb comfortably, let alone with gamepad). Especially this last one - there is point in future where for a lot (if not most) people it is just more convenient to have their libraries be accessible from any device, even if at home they have their main device they prefer to play on. This is not just Switch related, and might not even influence NS2 for better part of its lifecycle, but it's coming, for all, whether we like it or not. |
I've been hearing this stuff for over a decade now since smartphones took off, yet attempts to try to bring core gaming to phones have consistently failed miserably. They're just two entirely different things, people don't go to their phones for the kind of experience you get on a console.