I'll bet ~120 million units, maybe 130 if it gets supported for as long as base Switch

Pricing here will make double purchasing harder and more rare

Also, this time there is no pent-up demand for Nintendo unlike Switch 1, which was the moment Nintendo embraced HD development (technically it was Wii U but nobody owned a Wii U). This time the jump in graphical fidelity and the size of the world will not be as impactful, which can hurt sales a bit

This time hybrid console is no longer a new concept that grabs your attention immediately, people already have Switch 1, so there will be less experimental purchases compared to Switch 1 I.e. the ones who come to terms a hybrid console is pointless is not coming to Switch 2

Lastly, no pandemic this time (at least I expect so)


Granted none of those will prove any big impact, when combined they can decrease the sales in range of ~30 million units compared to OG Switch

I think there will be a (legit) Switch 2 Pro this time around, not just Lite/OLED revisions. Not having the COVID boost is obviously going to be impossible for Nintendo to replicate but I think they will have a real deal Pro this time around.

Who thinks it's easy everyone here has explained their answers plus this has nothing to do with Playstation as Nintendo has done it 4 times themselves

For 450 it's selling less than the Switch. How much less I'm not sure. I'm voting for something between 100m and 120m (PS1 to PS4 levels)

My main wild card is that I think we underestimate how many people may remain satisfied with their Switch 1.... So many people I know just have a Switch to have the option of some local multiplayer fun etc, Mario Kart a few times a year. I think Switch has a HUGE casual audience who may not necessarily feel the need to upgrade. I'm going to settle on 110m

130-140 million.

Edit: 3 hours later...

https://x.com/shinobi602/status/1907536101041975306

Updated prediction: I don't know! This industry might be fucked.

It will sell less than the original Switch, my guess would be 130 million. Reasons for more expensive price especially in poorer countries outside the Europe and United States axis. More expensive games. Switch 2 is no longer a novelty like Switch 1 was. Greater number of competitors, especially if Microsoft launches a portable this year.

With prices being on the high side I'm less sure about it reaching 130m now though it's still no doubt gonna be a big success due to Nintendo being in an amazing place right now and the hardware being a very compelling upgrade. Due to the price there's definitely gonna be less people buying multiple Switch 2's compared to the Switch with more parents making their kids share a single Switch 2 instead of buying one for each child. With the Switch 2 Lite presumably costing at least as much as the current base Switch then it's for sure gonna do notably worse with poor people than the Switch. Assuming the Switch 3 or whatever isn't coming out till 2033 I'd say PS4/GB is about the lower end of where it'll end up with the 140's being the high end.

Many thought the Switch 1 prices were high when it launched (myself included) and thought it would hinder its success, but it is still doing great. I expect the Switch 2 to have similar arguments made against it, only to smash them later.

This is true the online reaction to things didn't reflect the actual reality while some are bringing up the price I think they are also overlooking the bigger than expected leap in tech from the platform over its predecessor for example Prime 4 runs at 120fps on Switch 2, the differences in visual fidelity and such will have a number of people be sold on it.