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I'll bet ~120 million units, maybe 130 if it gets supported for as long as base Switch

Pricing here will make double purchasing harder and more rare

Also, this time there is no pent-up demand for Nintendo unlike Switch 1, which was the moment Nintendo embraced HD development (technically it was Wii U but nobody owned a Wii U). This time the jump in graphical fidelity and the size of the world will not be as impactful, which can hurt sales a bit

This time hybrid console is no longer a new concept that grabs your attention immediately, people already have Switch 1, so there will be less experimental purchases compared to Switch 1 I.e. the ones who come to terms a hybrid console is pointless is not coming to Switch 2

Lastly, no pandemic this time (at least I expect so)


Granted none of those will prove any big impact, when combined they can decrease the sales in range of ~30 million units compared to OG Switch