BotW is what made Switch take off out of the gate, then Odyssey helped sustain momentum. That carried them into Smash Ultimate, which was a huge deal, which carried them to the phenomenon that was New Horizons. By that point, Switch had had like 4 breakout games in the pop culture zeitgeist, and its position as a huge seller for years more to come was cemented. They will need to replicate that again if they want Switch 2 to come anywhere close in sales. It will be all about having 3-4 massive games that get everyone talking in those first 3 years or so it’s out. But that’s not going to happen by just giving us games like Skyward Sword or Mario 3D World that are fine, but not going to get the mainstream gaming public talking. It has to be games as bold as BotW/Odyssey were at the time, epic in scale as Smash Ultimate, or as universally appealing as New Horizons. 

We don't have enough information yet. But I'm in agreement with you. I'd like to hear some scenario arguments for how Switch 2 could be PS2 rather than a bunch of people using "vibes" or a "gut feeling" or any other form of assumption of what will happen.

Right now, the "how it could happen" argument is much more interesting than the "what will happen" argument - because we're still in the hypothetical era of Switch 2.

I definitely have some ideas, but honestly, I'd need a bit more time to gauge the current situation before I go out on a limb. All I am going to say is that every generation since the Wii, the average consensus among analysts and forum dwellers as to the success of a new Nintendo console has always ended up being a massive miss. Unlike what most people seem to think, Switch 2 appears to be entering an environment much more favorable to its success than its predecessor, and that could very well be a big factor to consider going forward. Curious what @RolStoppable has to say about this subject, I've always enjoyed his takes in the past.

Sure, no problem.

One prevailing sentiment is that Switch is a novelty product whose sales benefited from this bonus, so its successor is bound to have lower sales. But what is Switch's novelty? It is that it works well as both a home console and a handheld console, two things that are absolutely not a novelty because the former dates back to the 1970s while the latter was established with the Game Boy in 1989. So if you think that's a novelty, then you are basically betting against the entire history of video game consoles.

The parallel between PS1 to PS2 and Switch to Switch 2 is the initial big question of third party support. The PS1 started slow and it was only by late 1996 (almost two years after launch) that the floodgates had really opened and removed all doubts; on the other hand, the PS2 could count on full support from day 1. It took Switch 1 until early 2019 before things started in earnest to roll for third party support, with it becoming common practice for Japanese publishers to have day and date launches. Now for Switch 2 we have rumors flying around that various AAA third party content is planned to release during year 1; late ports, but more substantial than what was in Switch 1's pipeline during the comparable timeframe. Additionally, Japanese support is going to continue uninterrupted because the market situation in Japan is trending towards an almost Nintendo monopoly with no signs of anything changing this trend.

If we then consider the major change in the global video game market with Microsoft being on the verge of either bowing out or becoming a niche player for third party sales, then it becomes more and more likely that at least a few of the Western publishers will follow in the footsteps of Japanese publishers and treat the Nintendo platform much better than they used to do. We cannot and should not expect these games to challenge the sales levels they achieve on PlayStation, but the mere fact that more of them will be on Nintendo on a regular basis is already a stark contrast to how things were for Switch 1.

Nintendo's competition today is weaker than it was eight years ago. While this doesn't mean that Nintendo will be able to make use of this opportunity, it's undeniable that the opportunity to top the sales of Switch 1 exists in a realistic manner and not just a highly theoretically one. Right now we not only have Microsoft throwing in the towel, but are also at the beginning of gamers souring on Sony due to their blown GaaS strategy that will result in a trickle of exciting first party content for the next few years. Almost everything is lining up positively for Nintendo at the moment; one major exception are Trump's tariff plans that could harm the US market as a whole for a few years.

I thought it was obvious that Switch 1 was Nintendo's PS2 moment.  At this point most of us realize that Switch 1 is going to outsell the PS2's lifetime hardware sales.

Personally, I expect the Switch -> Switch 2 relationship to be more like the NES -> SNES relationship.  This is because I'm looking at the software of the NES, SNES, Switch, and what I expect from Switch 2.  The NES had the more revolutionary first party software of any system ever made.  This is why tons of big franchises started on the NES: Mario, Zelda, Metroid, Punch Out, Final Fantasy, Tetris, Dragon Quest, Castlevania, Mega Man, etc....  Nintendo software set the world on fire, and it was only the second half of the NES/Famicom's life that third party software became significant.  Even then, if you look at the sales charts, almost all of the major sellers are from Nintendo except Dragon Quest (and that was big in Japan only).

During the SNES, Nintendo also made a lot of great software, but it wasn't as revolutionary.  They weren't creating as many major new franchises as they did on the NES.  They created Mario Kart, but most other first party games were measured iterations on what came before.  On the other hand third party output was a lot more impressive on the SNES.  Street Fighter 2 was a major game at the time, and the SNES was the definitive way to play it at home.  Even third party franchises started on the NES often grew a lot more than the first party games did.  For example, there is still some debate about which is better Super Mario 3 or Super Mario World, but when comparing Final Fantasy 1 to Final Fantasy 6, there is no debate.  Final Fantasy 6 is just miles ahead of the NES game.  You can also see this in the sales charts, where third party sales were a lot better on the SNES compared to the NES.  

This is what I expect from the Switch 1 and the Switch 2.  The Switch had some really revolutionary software like BotW, SSBU and AC: New Horizons.  Nintendo seems to pull out some of its most innovative software right after a huge failure like the Wii U or Gamecube.  Then, when it's successful, software development becomes more conservative and they start doing more measured iterations on what came before.  I do not expect first party software, overall, to be as impressive on Switch 2 as it was on Switch.  On the other hand, I expect third party software to be a whole lot better.  Third party companies really missed an opportunity to make a lot of money on Switch 1, especially in the pre-COVID years, and I expect them to give Switch 2 much better support.

What does that mean for hardware sales?  The SNES was still a very successful console and ended Generation 4 with over 50% market share worldwide.  However, it wasn't as successful as the NES.  That's what I expect from Switch 2.  It will be very successful, but it won't match the success of Switch 1.

(Disclaimer: I'm saying this and the only software I've seen for Switch 2 is about 5 seconds of Mario Kart 9.  After April 2, I may be changing my tune.  I hope Nintendo shows off some software that proves me wrong.)

The Switch can't be a PS2 moment for Nintendo seeing as it isn't following up on a previous success. The PS2's main attribute wasn't ushering in a new age for the gaming landscape, it was building on the success of its predecessor by taking advantage of the weak position of its rivals to consolidate 3rd party support and solidify Playstation as the dominant brand in console gaming. The Switch's success can better be compared to the PS1, but on a bigger scale. As Rol said, both consoles entered the market as unproven players with a unique lifestyle selling point (hybrid console and multimedia machine respectively) in what most assumed to be a saturated market but managed to steadily gain ground over their rivals and expand the market off a consistent and killer lineup of games. Both also ultimately laid the groundwork for what would be a very lucrative and sustainable business off which mostly iterative successors would follow.

I see what you mean now. 

I don't think Switch 1 -> Switch 2 will be like PS1 -> PS2, though.  I think it will be like NES -> SNES.

That could be true, the point that I'm trying to make (and that Rol described quite succinctly), is that the circumstances do present themselves for a PS2-style transition to occur, even if it might not happen.

One thing to note about the SNES is that it was a late competitor in a growing market where Sega and NEC had already established a foothold with the Genesis and Turbografx-16, both of which had a whopping 2 year headstart over the SNES. In particular, the SNES managed to match the NES's sales numbers in every territory outside NA, despite having less time on the market. It was the Genesis's strong performance in NA specifically that hurt the SNES, while the Turbografx's performance in Japan capped the SNES's ability to meaningfully grow sales in that region.

By contrast, the Switch is entering a stagnant market where one of its competitors (Xbox) is looking to extricate itself from the dedicated console business while the other (PlayStation) is stuck on a four-generation old business model yielding ever diminishing returns. Sound familiar? One could argue that Sega and Nintendo found themselves in a very similar situation respectively by the end of the 1990s. There's even speculation that Xbox intends to start the next generation early due to the disappointing performance of the Series X|S on the market, much as Sega did with the Dreamcast. Nintendo definitely still has plenty of room to make missteps sure, but I think the market landscape right now does feel eerily similar to how it was in the late 1990s.

I think because of more competition in the handheld space, with Sony and Microsoft being interested in making gaming handhelds and the rising popularity of PC handhelds like the Steam Deck. The Switch 2 won't do as well as the first Switch.

With that said It will still be a huge success overall and has a good shot of reaching 100mil LT.

Is this thread a joke thread.