| The_Liquid_Laser said: I see what you mean now. I don't think Switch 1 -> Switch 2 will be like PS1 -> PS2, though. I think it will be like NES -> SNES. |
That could be true, the point that I'm trying to make (and that Rol described quite succinctly), is that the circumstances do present themselves for a PS2-style transition to occur, even if it might not happen.
One thing to note about the SNES is that it was a late competitor in a growing market where Sega and NEC had already established a foothold with the Genesis and Turbografx-16, both of which had a whopping 2 year headstart over the SNES. In particular, the SNES managed to match the NES's sales numbers in every territory outside NA, despite having less time on the market. It was the Genesis's strong performance in NA specifically that hurt the SNES, while the Turbografx's performance in Japan capped the SNES's ability to meaningfully grow sales in that region.
By contrast, the Switch is entering a stagnant market where one of its competitors (Xbox) is looking to extricate itself from the dedicated console business while the other (PlayStation) is stuck on a four-generation old business model yielding ever diminishing returns. Sound familiar? One could argue that Sega and Nintendo found themselves in a very similar situation respectively by the end of the 1990s. There's even speculation that Xbox intends to start the next generation early due to the disappointing performance of the Series X|S on the market, much as Sega did with the Dreamcast. Nintendo definitely still has plenty of room to make missteps sure, but I think the market landscape right now does feel eerily similar to how it was in the late 1990s.
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