2026 is a bit tough, but I think the Switch can still carry it, especially if the Switch 2 is hard to find.

I personally don’t think it’ll be that tough, GTA VI might pose a threat to the vs, but that type of game isn’t as popular in Japan as it is everywhere else.

I can see PS5 reaching near 1.0M at the max.

Switch can get to 1.0M calmly.

Switch 2 will still dominate and reach probably near 5.5M.

The 3DS sold 1.7m in Japan in 2017 and then only sold a bit under 550k in 2018 so the Switch should only sell a few hundred thousand or so there next year.

Thats if we see a 70% decline next year from the speculative 1.55M in Japan. I do not see the Switch having a steep drop like that. To reach the 1.0M I proposed, it would be a ~35% decline. The Switch will see a slow decline in its twilight years.

Switch 2 is slightly constrained via their online sign-ups. But it is consistent and healthy.

Switch is living in a coexistence ecosystem. And will continue to receive games in 2026 (Pokemon Champions, Rhythm Heaven Groove, Tomadachi Life: Living the Dream). These three have deep resonation with Japanese audiences.

Nintendo expects the Switch to sell ~700k from Jan-Mar (this is worldwide). Thus Japan’s market should be near 27% of sales making it be around 189k for the first 3 months. Meaning for the other 6 months the three fun games are released keeping sales from slumping. I expect ~250k (Apr-Jun), ~270k (Jul-Sept) and 290k (Oct-Dec). These estimates are either underestimated slightly or “accurate”.

I see the Switch being supported (but limited) and selling up to the end of 2028.

A 60-70% decline should happen yeah considering it's going to decline by over 50% this year when the Switch 2 didn't even release till June. In the road to 160m+ thread you pointed out that Z-A seemingly isn't boosting Switch 1 hardware sales at all so why are you expecting those three smaller games to do that by such a notable degree?

Your projections don't make sense since you're expecting it to be down massively for the first three months but then somehow it's only gonna be down by a bit over 10% Apr-Jun and then up YoY for Jul-Sept. If Jan-Mar is about 190k then the next two are easily gonna be below 150k considering that January is a relatively strong month for console sales in Japan.

Apologies for the pre-sent empty response.

This is fair and I understand.

Since Nintendo has said they will continue the Switch up to 2028 (indirectly through half-life cycle quotes in 2022), sounds like it will receive software and hardware support. So it won’t be a cliff. I believe we’ve already hit the cliff with the release of the Switch 2, and is now gradually and slowing descending gracefully. I’ll use DS numbers as the floor since the DS was a more collapse phase out. Its first year with the 3DS was a 80% drop. A lot steeper than the Switch’s expected 56%. The DS’s second year with the 3DS saw a 65% drop. So I’d place the maximum plausible decline with the Switch at ~65% leading to 540k. The minimum plausible decline we could see is ~25% similar to 3DS, PS2, PS3 (though that’s not my reasoning for my stance but does support and help it). A 35% decline is consistent with those consoles in a “stabilized second year phase out”. Seems like a conservative stance given the new scenario of a coexistence market.

I made the remark that Legends Z-A seems to not make a boost. This is most likely due to the audience saturation. So yes Legends Z-A is bigger but Pokémon Champions (has similar audiences but appeases classic Pokemon fans who are disappointed in the Switch mainline games and haven’t gotten a Switch), Rhythm Heaven & Tomadachi Life are aimed at Japanese tastes and include families, causal, and younger demographics. 
Again Z-A is bigger but the hardware elasticity of the three mentioned are higher in late lifecycle context concerning the demographics mentioned.

Jan usually and sells less than Dec, Nov, Sept & Mar (I think 2025 was a different scenario with people holding off for Switch 2). Jan usually and consistently sells above the rest of the months, ranking Jan 4th/5th out of 12. The lowest months are usually May and Jun. So I understand your remark about Apr-Jun, I think that software releasing will help it. But let’s continue with the idea that Apr-Jun won’t sell more than Jan-Mar. For that I’ll make a revision.

Jan-Mar 189k. Apr-Jun 150k. Jul-Sept ~290k. Oct-Dec ~360k

Jul-Sept has a 23% increase which isn’t impossible, we saw that consoles beforehand have had an increase as well selling alongside their successor (though it’s more closer to +5% YoY). Since the Switch is in a coexistence market with the Switch 2 we could see such an increase and is plausible.

Hope that helped.

Where are you getting 25% from? The 3DS declined by nearly 70% in Japan in 2018 and the PS3 51% in 2014. My expectation is that the Switch will act like those consoles and have a normal decline post the launch of its successor. The reason you've given to expect the Switch to behave radically different to systems like those ones is software continuing to sell hardware which doesn't work since non-exclusive software does not boost console sales in a major way once the successor is out and even exclusive software stops making a difference once the successor has been out for a while.

Sorry mate but your analysis is completely off here. There's no universe the Switch is up a quarter next year since console sales don't work like that. Unless there's really unusual circumstances sales fall off drastically each year once a successor is out and circumstances for the Switch and Switch 2 are not unusual.

3DS in 2019 had 26% decline.

PS2 in both 2008 & 2009 had 21% declines.

PS3 in 2015 had a 25% decline.

After their 50-70% decline in the first year, in their second year there is a stabilization in sales. Ive found it helps to look at the full data trend, though I’m not perfect at doing it either, no worries there.

It is still a yearly decline YoY overall, but is not steep. As stated earlier, the DS decline is a hard floor. And the 3DS is a hard ceiling. A sub-40% decline can be a reality, and I believe is the possibility with the Switch in 2026 in Japan.
Nintendo has stated that the Switch’s lifecycle is still kicking ending in 2027, shelfcycle will go on past 2028. Switch and Switch 2 are in a market state of coexistence.

Switch 2 has constrained sign-ups, it is consistent and healthy. Though it can lead many to get the cheaper and more immediate option, a Switch. When I speak of a stabilization year, this means that there will still be a YoY decline, it will not be fall but a shallower decline. Stabilization does not mean an overall growth.

Considering the issue you present around software not boosting console sales in a major way or making a difference.  
3DS:
-Pokémon US/UM boosting hardware sales in Japan by near 4x the pre-release week data.  
-Detective Pikachu & WarioWare boosted near +30-50%
Wii: (even though the listed games are pre-WiiU, the Wii was abandoned once WiiU released so pre-WiiU seems appropriate)   
-Dragon Quest X, Just Dance 2, Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Chou Goukaban had boosted near 2x   
-Rhythm Heaven Fever boosted by 3x.
-PokéPark 2 had near 70-80% increase boost 
DS:   
-Pokémon Black & White (not as relevant)   
-Pokémon Black 2 & White 2 increased hardware by 900%

We’ll also take a look at more recent Rhythm Heaven and Tomadachi. Rhythm Heaven Gold during a mid/late life cycle of Wii boosted hardware by 118%. Tomadachi Life during a mature era of 3DS boosted hardware by 140%.

While a weekly hardware uplift is modest in available data (for smaller less prominent IP’s), the fact that a game could launch and register tens of thousands of hardware sales at their consoles life stage supports the idea of residual demand and hardware elasticity among particular demographics. Like the ones I explained earlier. Late-cycle exclusives aimed a different demographics can still and have created localized boosts (Japan is not the exception).

The coexistence market does not present the normal situation we have seen in past Nintendo consoles. With it, exclusive or Japan-targeted software can sustain demand longer than the usual drop. Japan handhelds (as Switch is and can be used as such) are supported in the market for longer past their global declines.

So yes, a 35% decline YoY (1.0M) for Switch in Japan in 2026 is a viable, expectation. It’ll be a stabilization year with minor intra-year rebounds like I listed in Jul-Sept. This isn’t wishful thinking but based on historical data/trends to represent what a coexistence market looks like. You have your interpretation, I present mine. We each present evidences, weighing in on their strengths and weaknesses.

I’ll be happy to be proven wrong if that’s how it turns out to be, hopefully we both can be open to what turns out. That kind of openness demonstrates growth.

While I don't believe Switch sales will crash as much as those from DS and 3DS did the year after their respective successor launched, I don't believe that Switch can keep selling like this for much longer. I expect more something like 14k - 17k weekly sales, so about 700k - 880k sales for the Switch next year.

As for the PS5, I expect more something like 730k - 850k, so while the upper limit for the Switch is higher, they're otherwise in the same range 

Switch 1 is fairly close to saturation point in Japan. 36M sales on a population of 123M. Meaning in demographics of people at around ages 10-40 in Japan the Switch is about as wide spread as possible for a video game system.