Shtinamin_ said:
Thats if we see a 70% decline next year from the speculative 1.55M in Japan. I do not see the Switch having a steep drop like that. To reach the 1.0M I proposed, it would be a ~35% decline. The Switch will see a slow decline in its twilight years. Switch 2 is slightly constrained via their online sign-ups. But it is consistent and healthy. Switch is living in a coexistence ecosystem. And will continue to receive games in 2026 (Pokemon Champions, Rhythm Heaven Groove, Tomadachi Life: Living the Dream). These three have deep resonation with Japanese audiences. Nintendo expects the Switch to sell ~700k from Jan-Mar (this is worldwide). Thus Japan’s market should be near 27% of sales making it be around 189k for the first 3 months. Meaning for the other 6 months the three fun games are released keeping sales from slumping. I expect ~250k (Apr-Jun), ~270k (Jul-Sept) and 290k (Oct-Dec). These estimates are either underestimated slightly or “accurate”. I see the Switch being supported (but limited) and selling up to the end of 2028. |
A 60-70% decline should happen yeah considering it's going to decline by over 50% this year when the Switch 2 didn't even release till June. In the road to 160m+ thread you pointed out that Z-A seemingly isn't boosting Switch 1 hardware sales at all so why are you expecting those three smaller games to do that by such a notable degree?
Your projections don't make sense since you're expecting it to be down massively for the first three months but then somehow it's only gonna be down by a bit over 10% Apr-Jun and then up YoY for Jul-Sept. If Jan-Mar is about 190k then the next two are easily gonna be below 150k considering that January is a relatively strong month for console sales in Japan.
